Odaily Planet Daily News - Placeholder partner Chris Burniske posted on X, saying: "If your friends associate you with Bitcoin, Ethereum, or any cryptocurrency, you may be asked what to do. Guiding someone from our current level (BTC is about $100000) is a tricky thing, especially if they are an inexperienced investor. We have learned some experience from more than 10 years of observation.<span style=" display: inline! Important; Ensure that every action they take is their own responsibility. You may have more knowledge or experience, but that doesn't mean you're absolutely right. No one has any definite understanding of the market.</span><span style="display: inline! important； The only thing you can be sure of is that those who say they 'know for sure' are lying
Try to explain to them which stage of the cycle we are currently in. For me, we have been in this bull market for 2 years now (with the bottom in November/December 2022).
Since its bottom 2 years ago, BTC has risen more than 6 times, ETH has risen more than 4 times, and SOL has risen more than 30 times.
Personally, if they are beginners, I prefer a certain percentage of BTC, ETH, and SOL (50/25/25%), with everything else being at their own risk.
Although ETFs and potential sovereign purchases may mean that BTC will not suffer from the brutal bear market of the past in the future, every bullish person will come up with various reasons to explain why we will rise or why we will not encounter a bear market.
The 'super cycle' is undoubtedly a collective illusion.
I can see the reasons for the repetitive cycle (reaching its peak in the fourth quarter of 2025), as well as the reasons for extending the cycle and breaking away from the 4-year pattern. Although we may integrate after the inauguration ceremony in the United States, I do not believe in the idea of shortening the cycle. That is to say, structurally speaking, anything that grows 100 times rapidly is prone to collapse at least 80-90% at some point because too many people are sitting on profits.
Therefore, SOL's rise from $8 to $800 during this cycle may mean that it will bottom out at $80-160 in the future (such as 2027). Therefore, if beginners buy and firmly hold onto $240, they will lose money in the next bear market.
It's difficult for people to realize this from the frenzy of a bull market, but since you've experienced it, you know it, and now you can teach them
