Odaily Planet Daily News: According to the latest report released by Matrixport, Bitcoin has achieved positive returns during the Chinese New Year period in 11 out of the past 12 years, with a statistically impressive success rate (hit rate) of 83% proving its returns during this period. As a network driven currency, the price increase of Bitcoin is driven by the expansion of its user base. The more people learn about Bitcoin and buy it, the faster its price can rise. Few other events can compare to the impact of Chinese New Year in driving this network effect, making it a unique and important catalyst for Bitcoin's seasonal performance.
Bitcoin is currently in a complex interaction of a series of opposing forces. In terms of technology, the daily reversal indicator reached oversold levels last week, suggesting potential support, while the weekly indicator still indicates that Bitcoin is still in an overbought state. In terms of macroeconomics, unfavorable factors such as tightening liquidity and the hawkish stance of the Federal Reserve have brought negative effects. Meanwhile, bullish drivers such as expectations for the establishment of Bitcoin reserves in the United States and the rise of the pro cryptocurrency Trump administration have provided support.
Since the FOMC meeting in December 2024, the minting of stablecoins has come to a halt, reflecting a decrease in fiat inflows, but Bitcoin funding rates show early signs of a recovery in trading activity. This tug of war dynamic puts Bitcoin in a consolidation phase.
However, as the Chinese Lunar New Year begins on January 29th, this period represents the statistically most favorable 20 day trading window for Bitcoin, potentially providing ample opportunities for long positions. The statistical significance of this rising trend every Chinese New Year cannot be denied, making it one of the most consistent events in Bitcoin history. We discovered this secret two years ago and emphasized it again last year. During these two periods, the price of Bitcoin increased by+26% and+23% respectively, strengthening the reliability of this seasonal trend.
