According to BlockBeats, on May 1st, economists worldwide are closely monitoring the US non farm payroll data report for April, which will be released on Friday. The market is concerned that the US labor market may experience severe turbulence due to the Trump administration's tariff campaign, which will significantly increase the probability of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates for the first time this year in June.
Top Wall Street asset management firm Apollo Global Management has warned that due to the impact of the 145% tariff imposed on other countries in early April and the escalation of the global trade war, the non farm payroll may fall into negative values, and the unemployment rate is expected to soar to 4.5% (expected 4.2%). Data shows that during the survey period (April 7-13), the effective tariff rate in the United States has reached 23% (a new high since 1900), causing a simultaneous collapse in business confidence and consumer expectations.
Expectations of a Federal Reserve interest rate cut are rapidly rising: Governor Waller (2024 committee) stated that "tariff induced layoffs will support a rate cut," while Cleveland Fed Chairman Mester (2026 committee) hinted that "action will be taken once June data is met. Goldman Sachs' model shows that high-frequency indicators such as initial jobless claims (now 222000) and the ISM service sector index have become the forefront of a recession, and the CME Federal Reserve observation tool shows that the probability of a 25 basis point interest rate cut in June has soared to 12.7%.
Although the current labor market is still resilient (with a non farm payroll increase of 228000 in March far exceeding expectations), the lagging effects of tariff shocks are fermenting: the number of new orders from enterprises has sharply decreased, capital expenditure plans have been frozen, inventory backlog has reached historical peaks, and consumers have overdrawn their purchasing power in advance to avoid price hikes. According to Bloomberg's latest survey, economists have raised the probability of a US recession in the next 12 months from 30% to 45%, with JPMorgan Chase and BCA Research warning a probability of over 50%. The Apollo model deduction suggests that supply chain disruptions caused by tariffs may trigger an economic recession in the summer of 2025, and non farm payroll data will become a key turning point in predicting the logic chain of "rate cut rhythm economic hard landing".
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