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Bitcoin (BTC) Daily Analysis
1. Price performance and support pressure
Current price: After breaking through a historical high of $100000, Bitcoin is now reported at around $102162, with a intraday fluctuation range of $102240-104373, facing short-term downward pressure.
Key support level: The range of 99000-100600 US dollars is an important recent support, and if it falls below, it may explore the range of 97363-98680 US dollars; The resistance level above is between $103000 and $105000, and after breaking through, it may challenge $120000.
2. Technical indicators and market sentiment
Technical aspect: Daily RSI has fallen to 40.47, MACD momentum has weakened but still maintains a bullish trend, prices are far above the 50 day and 200 day moving averages, and the long-term bull market pattern remains unchanged
Market sentiment: Greed index reaches 70, indicating short-term overheating risk; On chain data shows that the number of whale addresses has increased, but some large investors have started to take profits, resulting in a decrease in exchange reserves and a differentiation between long and short positions
3. Macro and financial impacts
Institutional funds: Bitcoin ETF has had a net inflow for 20 consecutive days (BlackRock's daily inflow of $69 million), but the on chain momentum is weak, and demand indicators have hit a new low since October 2024. Insufficient liquidity may limit the rebound height.
Macroeconomics: The US China tariff agreement reduces market uncertainty, but if the US CPI data rebounds beyond expectations, it may trigger a strengthening of the US dollar and suppress Bitcoin.
Ethereum (ETH) Daily Analysis
1. Price performance and support pressure
Current price: Ethereum is currently reported at around $2448, with a intraday fluctuation range of $2406-2494. After a short-term correction, attention should be paid to the effectiveness of support at $2300-2400; The target above is $2700-3000.
Technical form: The daily chart breaks through the long-term resistance level, MACD maintains a long position, but RSI and KDJ top deviate, and the 12 hour K-line TD sequence turns green at 9, indicating significant short-term adjustment pressure.
2. Market catalysts and capital trends
ETF funds: Ethereum ETF has recently had a net inflow of $17.6 million, but overall institutional funding support is weaker than Bitcoin (net outflow of $55 million last week), with gains mainly driven by cryptocurrency native investors
Ecology and relative strength: The ETH/BTC ratio has rebounded to 0.024, and the inflow of ecological funds on the chain has accelerated (1.2 billion US dollars in 7 days). If it breaks through 0.026 or starts a strong cycle.
3. Risk and Long term Outlook
Short term risk: market sentiment overheating combined with technical pullback demand, if it falls below $2200, it may trigger a deep adjustment; Although the Pectra upgrade improves performance, it lacks sustained capital inflows or limits price increases.
Long term potential: With improved trade environment and increased recognition of the value of smart contract platforms, it is expected to challenge historical highs of over $3000 in the medium to long term.
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Disclaimer: The above content only represents the author's personal opinion and is for communication and sharing purposes only. It does not represent the position or viewpoint of AiCoin and does not constitute any investment advice. Based on this investment, there may be external contacts, which have nothing to do with AiCoin, and the consequences shall be borne by oneself.