Arthur Hayes: The stablecoin craze drives up the valuation of IPOs, and distribution channels are key to success or failure

Arthur Hayes, co-founder of BitMEX, recently published an article titled "Estimate the Position" stating that the success of stablecoin issuers depends crucially on whether they have distribution channels from cryptocurrency exchanges, social media platforms, or traditional banks. Tether has established a strong network effect due to its early roots in Greater China and deep integration with Bitfinex. Although Circle distributes USDC through Coinbase, it is still at a disadvantage. With Meta, X, Google and other companies planning to issue their own stablecoins, market competition is becoming increasingly fierce. Hayes warns investors that new issuers lacking channels may find it difficult to maintain high valuations even if they successfully go public, and may ultimately return to zero.