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Detailed analysis of ETH's recent market and future trends in the live broadcast room, layout and implement strategy sheets!
Three major driving forces ignite a bearish market trend
1. Macro policy easing: The probability of the Federal Reserve keeping interest rates unchanged in July is 81.9%, coupled with Trump's call for interest rate cuts, market risk appetite has surged, and hot money has poured into the cryptocurrency market.
2. Institutional funds enter the market at a nuclear bomb level: The cumulative net inflow of Ethereum ETF has exceeded $4.01 billion, and BlackRock's ETF (ETHA) has attracted $160 million in daily earnings with a ultra-low management fee of 0.25%, becoming the core engine of long positions.
3. Technical resonance: ETH surged from $2429 to $2524 within an hour, with a 3.15% increase. The KDJ golden cross and RSI broke through 50, releasing a buy signal and triggering a programmatic trading trend.
Long short battle: 5 billion short positions face life and death tribulation
Giant Whale clearly drives short: LD Capital founder JackYi publicly holds 142000 ETH spot positions (with a floating profit of 57.3%) and adds 100000 call options to pressure short positions through a "spot pull option profit" cycle.
The bearish defense line is fragile: the total number of ETH short positions on the internet has reached 5 billion US dollars, including 1.5 billion US dollars of CME options short positions and 800 million US dollars of AAVE lending short positions. If ETH breaks through $3000, it may trigger a $800 million CME liquidation and $230 million on chain clearing.
Key resistance competition: $2650 forms a "triple top" strong resistance, while $2800 is the overlapping area of Fibonacci 61.8% retracement and weekly Bollinger Bands. Breaking through this area will open a channel to $3000.
Is $3000 in sight? Short term vigilance against callback risks
Optimistic signal: Polymarket forecast shows a 35% chance of ETH breaking through $2600. If institutional holdings exceed 33% (currently less than 30%), a bull market may officially begin.
Hidden concerns still exist: On the technical side, RSI is overbought (72) and MVRV ratio has risen to 19.25%, indicating profit selling pressure; A mysterious whale went against the trend and established a $122 million short position, having previously accurately targeted local highs.
Decisive Battle Node: The 13F file in mid July will disclose the actual holdings of institutions such as BlackRock. If the allocation exceeds expectations, ETH may impact $3000; On the contrary, it may fall into a liquidity trap.
Investor Strategy: Survival Rules in a Short Market
Long position attack: Step by step position building (such as buying 30% at $2650 and adding 40% after breaking 2800), combined with bull market spread options to control risk.
Risk defense: closely monitor the warning points of liquidation (such as ETH $2650 pressure, $2430 support), and reasonably stop losses to prevent "false breakthroughs".
Fluctuations are opportunities, but discipline is life - when a giant whale flips the table, blindly chasing gains may become a sacrifice in the game of capital. The $3000 dream of ETH will ultimately be determined by the triple resonance of macro, on chain, and technical aspects
Operation suggestion:
BTC 106500 long. First target: 107550. Second target: 108350
ETH 2450 long first target to see 2500 second target to see 2545
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Disclaimer: The above content only represents the author's personal opinion and is for communication and sharing purposes only. It does not represent the position or viewpoint of AiCoin and does not constitute any investment advice. Based on this investment, there may be external contacts, which have nothing to do with AiCoin, and the consequences shall be borne by oneself.