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Late at night, Ethereum once again staged a shocking scene: the price plummeted below $2500, plummeting 12% within 24 hours, and the market value evaporated by over $10 billion. Dramatically, institutions such as BlackRock increased their holdings by over $148 million in a single day against the trend, and Trump affiliated funds even swept 4468 ETH in a sharp decline. Why is it still difficult to prevent a collapse despite such a huge investment? Behind it is a carefully orchestrated value war on Wall Street.
1、 The three major bottlenecks of institutional bottom fishing failure
1. Capital differentiation and strategic suppression of institutions
In the first three months of 2025, Ethereum ETF had a net outflow of $240 million, while Bitcoin ETF earned $790 million during the same period. This differentiation exposes the true intentions of institutions: the "digital gold" attribute of Bitcoin is more in line with traditional asset management logic, while the complexity of ETH's smart contracts makes its valuation difficult. More importantly, giants such as BlackRock hold $500 million in ETH but refuse to pledge it, creating panic selling by suppressing market sentiment, only to attract funds at lower levels. Data shows that when ETH fell below $2000, BlackRock immediately went against the trend and increased its position.
2. The fatal shackles of the pledge mechanism
There are three paradoxes in the current Ethereum staking:
Misalignment of returns: ETF pledged returns belong to the trust, and investors can only indirectly benefit through net worth, with 3.12% annualized returns being virtually non-existent;
Liquidity trap: staking takes 58 days to enter and 29 days to exit, which is like a risk multiplier in a volatile market;
Centralized backlash: Coinbase custody accounts for over 27%, and the decentralized narrative has completely collapsed.
When the yield of US treasury bond bonds reached 4.8%, institutions naturally abandoned ETH and turned to risk-free US bonds.
3. Ecological bleeding and competitive strangulation
Solana crushed the Ethereum mainnet and Layer2 total (20 million transactions) with a daily processing volume of 65 million transactions, causing developers to accelerate their defection. The prosperity of Layer2 has become a parent "coffin nail": DApps such as Arbitrum on the chain have grown by 300% in three months, Base daily activity has exceeded 2 million, and ETH has completely become a "gas fee voucher". Capital synchronized migration, new hotspots such as MEME coin and RWA gathered on Solana and Ton chains, and the proportion of Ethereum TVL plummeted from 56% to 32%.
2、 Leveraged liquidation and the death spiral of derivatives
The sharp drop triggered a chain of explosions on the chain, and a giant whale shorted ETH with 50 times leverage on the Hyperliquid platform, triggering the liquidation of 160000 ETH (worth $306 million), with a single day decline expanding to 14%. The derivatives market is facing simultaneous challenges: despite the continuous decline in prices, ETH open contracts have increased by $17.5 billion, perpetual contract funding rates remain negative, and the cost of short positions is extremely low. When panic emotions combine with high leverage, institutional bottom fishing funds are instantly swallowed up by the whale of derivatives.
3、 The Nirvana Signal at the Darkest Moment
There is still a turning point in the desperate situation:
Technological breakthrough: Pectra upgrade will shorten the pledge unlocking cycle from 27 days to 6 days, and the market value of liquidity pledged tokens may double to $68 billion;
Profit restructuring: BlackRock is applying for ETF pledge function, and if approved, it may attract $12 billion in institutional funds annually;
Secret weapon: The V-God team is advancing the integration of ZK-EVM and AI agents, which may reignite technological beliefs.
When Wall Street vultures complete their chip harvest, Ethereum's phoenix rebirth may truly begin. But at this moment, the market is still under the icy gaze of institutions, plunging into a deeper abyss of value reconstruction.
Operation suggestion:
BTC 107500 long. First target: 108400. Second target: 109100
ETH 2480 long first target to see 2550 second target to see 2600
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Disclaimer: The above content only represents the author's personal opinion and is for communication and sharing purposes only. It does not represent the position or viewpoint of AiCoin and does not constitute any investment advice. Based on this investment, there may be external contacts, which have nothing to do with AiCoin, and the consequences shall be borne by oneself.
