Odaily Planet Daily News: Trader Eugene posted in his community, "I bet on a breakthrough in the market this week, and after careful consideration, my main target is ETH. Although I swore not to touch it again at the end of 2024 and the beginning of 2025, I now realize that the position structure and market tailwinds of ETH have undergone significant changes.
The main logical summary is as follows:
1. Structural holdings are extremely light: In April 2025, ETH suffered a heavy market blow, falling from $4000 to $1300, and the ETH/BTC exchange rate also hit a multi-year low of 0.018. This sharp decline was accompanied by a comprehensive surrender style sell-off by traders and early whales. Since then, the trading method of ETH has been significantly different from the past two years. Nowadays, apart from developers, almost no one considers ETH as a core position anymore, and most traders even refuse to engage with it. Therefore, from the perspective of high time frame (HTF) structure, the current ETH holdings are at their lowest level in almost three years.
2. ETH will become a stablecoin and infrastructure backbone for institutional and traditional financial bets: Although this claim has been frequently mentioned recently and I was initially skeptical, if we objectively look at the regulatory progress actively promoted by the United States in recent times, it is not difficult to speculate that institutions will eventually seek new allocation directions outside of BTC. ETH currently holds over 90% of stablecoins, and this dominant position is highly likely to continue. Considering the higher risks faced by other L1, there is almost no commercial reason to shift the track. In addition, traditional financial representatives such as Tom Lee have also begun to express their recognition of ETH, and with the passing of the US stablecoin bill, ETH is gradually gaining institutional support from a "legal and compliant" perspective.
3. There is a lot of room for ETH price to rise: although this may not be decisive in itself, once the market starts to gain momentum, the "lag" of ETH price compared to BTC can easily become a spreading point. Traditional financial buyers often have "information lag", which means that the narrative of "it's not too late to buy ETH now" may become popular. If ETH returns to its historical high (which requires an increase of about 85%), ETH/BTC will only return to the 0.044 level in September 2024. Even if ETH/BTC does not rise, as long as BTC breaks through $110000, the bull market is likely to restart, and during this period, ETH usually does not lag behind. ETH's usual weak phase often occurs when BTC is sideways or falling.
After careful consideration, I firmly believe that from a medium-term structural perspective, ETH is a clear bet and have already established corresponding positions and layouts
