During the live broadcast of Three Kingdoms College, the tariff war has once again begun, and the BTC market is expected to plummet to 50000 RMB?

Click on the link to enter Tencent Meeting: https://meeting.tencent.com/p/7890471408 1、 Latest Market Trends 1. Impact of macro events Trump's tariff policy: On July 7th, the United States announced the imposition of tariffs (25% -40%) on 12 countries including Japan and South Korea, triggering market risk aversion. Bitcoin fell to around $107500 at one point, while Ethereum tested support at $2530. Federal Reserve meeting minutes: June meeting minutes will be released on July 9th, and if hawkish signals are released, it may further suppress risk assets. 2. Capital flow ETF fund differentiation: The net inflow of Bitcoin ETF was 52 million US dollars, and the net inflow of Ethereum ETF was 9 million US dollars, but the overall fund activity decreased, and the market had a strong wait-and-see sentiment. On chain data: Bitcoin has strong support in the $106738-98566 range (with 16800 addresses holding positions), while Ethereum has stable support at $2530. 2、 Technical analysis Bitcoin (BTC) Trend structure: The 4-hour chart shows that the price has fallen below the key trend line of $108200 and is currently under pressure at $108500 (100 hour moving average and 50% Fibonacci retracement level). If the resistance cannot be broken, it may drop again to support $107500. The daily chart forms a long upper shadow, indicating heavy selling pressure around $110000, and a short-term effective breakthrough of $109700 is needed to open up upward space. Indicator signal: The MACD fast slow line converges above the zero axis, the kinetic energy column changes from red to green but the intensity is insufficient, and the RSI is in the 50 neutral range, oscillating bearish. Ethereum (ETH) Trend structure: The 4-hour chart forms a double top suppression at $2580-2600, with support at $2530 (institutional buying intensive zone). If it falls below 2530, it may fall back to 2460 US dollars. At the daily level, the price range of $2500-2600 remains volatile, and it is necessary to break through the previous high of $2635 to confirm the bullish trend. Indicator signal: DIF and DEA are bonded near the zero axis, with reduced kinetic energy and unclear short-term direction. 3、 Operational suggestions 1. Bitcoin (BTC) Short position strategy: rebound to 108300-108800 US dollars and go short in batches, with a target of 107500 US dollars and a stop loss of 109200 US dollars. Multi order strategy: If you hold steady at $107500, you can take a light long position and aim for $108500; Break through $109700 to chase after the long, target $110000. 2. Ethereum (ETH) Short position strategy: Short in the range of $2580-2600, target $2530-2520, stop loss $2620. Multiple order strategy: retrace to $2480-2500 and place multiple orders with a target of $2560 and a stop loss of $2450. 4、 Risk Warning 1. Event driven volatility: Before the implementation of tariff policies (August 1) and the release of the Federal Reserve's minutes, the market may experience severe fluctuations, and strict control of positions is required. 2. Segregation of altcoins: SocialFi and Layer2 sectors led the decline (such as TON falling 4.21%), avoiding chasing weak currencies and paying attention to mainstream altcoins such as SOL and UNI that are resistant to decline. 3. Emotional indicators: The Fear Greed Index is currently at 50 (neutral), but the Crypto Social Heat (SSI 63.4) indicates a high market warning level, alerting to the risk of a pullback. Summary: During the day, Da Bing Tai continued to fluctuate and be bearish, with a focus on observing the breakthrough of resistance in BTC at $108500 and ETH at $2580. If the macro bearish sentiment ferments, it may lower BTC by $106500 ETH 2, Supported by $460. Short term trading mainly focuses on high positions, with strict stop loss when breaking through. In this rebound led by Bitcoin, we have witnessed the power of technical analysis and the infinite possibilities of the market. Let's remain calm and continue to follow, because the story of Bitcoin continues. Welcome to the live broadcast room for communication, and at the same time, share practical knowledge and secret tactics! What will the market do next? Professor Pang Tong, who has ten years of theoretical and practical trading experience in the cryptocurrency industry, will provide a detailed breakdown for everyone. Welcome to the live broadcast room to check in! Join the Three Kingdoms College Exchange Group to receive more services: 1. Real time troubleshooting (online one-on-one question answering and sorting) 2. Professional technical analysis and theoretical learning 3. Construction and improvement of trading system 4. Live streaming courses every day, contract termination, real-time order making, to help you successfully land! Official QQ group: 579358784 Tencent Meeting ID: 789-047-1408 The live broadcast room will be broken down in detail. Disclaimer: The above content only represents the author's personal opinion and is for communication and sharing purposes only. It does not represent the position or viewpoint of AiCoin and does not constitute any investment advice. Based on this investment, there may be external contacts, which have nothing to do with AiCoin, and the consequences shall be borne by oneself.