Over the past week, the impact of the Federal Reserve meeting has been mixed, as its inclusion of stagflation risk in the latest economic forecast seems to contradict Federal Reserve Chairman Powell's assurance of economic stability. At the same time, as the deadline for Trump to impose broad reciprocal tariffs (April 2) approaches, these factors have led to turbulence in global financial markets. The following are the key points that the market will focus on in the new week:
At 21:45 on Monday, the final value of the S&P Global Manufacturing and Services PMI for February in the United States;
At 21:05 on Tuesday, FOMC permanent voting committee member and New York Fed Chairman Williams delivered the opening speech at an event;
On Tuesday at 22:00, the March Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index and the March Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index will be released;
On Thursday at 1:10, Moses Lem, the chairman of the St. Louis Fed and a member of the FOMC voting committee for 2025, delivered a speech;
Thursday 20:30, initial jobless claims for the week ending March 22 in the United States;
At 20:30 on Thursday, the final values of the annualized quarterly rates of real GDP, real personal consumption expenditure, and core PCE price index for the fourth quarter of the United States will be presented;
At 20:30 on Friday, the annual rate of the core PCE price index, monthly rate of personal expenses, and monthly rate of the core PCE price index for February in the United States.
Although the Federal Reserve has stated that it is not in a hurry to cut interest rates, market expectations are more dovish. Investors believe that the Federal Reserve is likely to cut interest rates three times this year, as they bet that the slowdown in the US economy will exceed the Fed's expectations, which means that economic growth data may become the focus in the coming months.
