According to BlockBeats, on April 4th, on chain data analyst Murphy posted on social media that during bull market corrections, BTC prices often hit STH-RPC multiple times, which is the average short-term holder turnover cost, currently at $93000; Since February this year, BTC has not experienced a decent rebound.
From November 2024 to January 2025, STH's profit realization accounted for 56% of the total realized value in the market, while LTH accounted for 42%. At that time, everyone had ample profit margins and led the cash out behavior. During the rebound period from March 13th to March 25th, LTH's profit realization accounted for 70%, while STH only had 10%; This indicates that the cash out behavior at this time is mainly for long-term holders, and short-term holders no longer have much profit margin.
From a data perspective, in history, whether it is a deep bear or bull market correction, it will form a temporary bottom after LTH gradually turns into a loss state, or even a bottom of a large cycle. Because there is nothing to sell (surrender), a bottom is formed. The cost base for long-term holders closest to the current price is around $81000, and this group has a size of approximately over 300000 BTC. That is to say, when the BTC price drops below $80000, these BTC held by LTH will enter a loss state (so this price also has a strong supporting effect).
In addition, over time, when more short-term chips trapped at high positions passively become long-term chips, the same effect will be produced; Overall, it raises the cost base of LTH. In any case, until this' problem 'is effectively resolved, it will always be within the framework of' looking for rebound rather than reversal '.
