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According to the large transaction data in the past 12 hours, the main force had a net outflow of 12.06 million and a total selling amount of 108 million, which significantly suppressed the price. The latest three large market sell orders were sold intensively around 101000, totaling over 3.6 million, indicating that the main force is accelerating its exit. Combined with the current 2-hour candlestick showing a bearish swallowing pattern and divergence below the MACD zero axis, further confirming the downward trend, the price has fallen below the support of the EMA24 and EMA52 double moving averages, and the downward space may further open up. In the short term, we need to be vigilant about the risk of further pullbacks.
When there is intense local conflict, market panic, and rising demand for safe haven, Bitcoin as a "digital gold" will benefit in the short term. However, when peace signals are released and risk appetite returns to the stock market, Bitcoin, like gold, will face "profit taking". This is not a bad thing, it is a manifestation of asset attributes. In other words, Bitcoin is no longer an "anti-government speculative currency", but a first tier player "included in global asset allocation". Its trend has long been hijacked by macro pricing - this is the price it paid for entering the mainstream, and also the moat for its future market value to continue to rise. Positive news landing is a short-term bearish trend, just a technical correction. Chain data has already taken precautions: Against the backdrop of a 24% increase in the past 30 days, new buyers are strong, but momentum funds are starting to weaken, and short-term profit taking is inevitable. The financing interest rate has long exceeded the standard, and the long positions have high leverage. After the bearish trend, it is natural to need a wash up. The script for this morning's sharp decline is a textbook style "risk control action before the release of CPI data". From perpetual contracts to spot ETFs, and even "main players" like Strategy who are all adding positions themselves, it doesn't seem like a top signal at all. Reverse engineering seems to be a typical case of "technical diving+using information as a pretext".
Let's take another look at the data: US spot BTC and ETFs have already flowed in $2 billion in the first 9 days of May, and Strategy just bought 13.390 BTC, with a position of 568000 BTC, accounting for 6% of the circulation. This is called the top? In the medium to long term, the true top is when no one worries about it.
Operation suggestion:
BTC 101000 long. First target: watch 102500. Second target: watch 103800
ETH 2395 long. First target is 2460. Second target is 2550
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Disclaimer: The above content only represents the author's personal opinion and is for communication and sharing purposes only. It does not represent the position or viewpoint of AiCoin and does not constitute any investment advice. Based on this investment, there may be external contacts, which have nothing to do with AiCoin, and the consequences shall be borne by oneself.
