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$3494
Last night, ETH fell below a critical psychological defense line, and in a capital killing battle directed by both macro bearish and technical collapse, individual leveraged positions turned into a bloody fuel of $179 million in explosive warehouse orders.
Crash Storm: Data Reveals Cruel Truth
——Flash Crash: On the early morning of August 2nd, ETH plummeted 6% within 8 hours, plummeting from $3600 to $3494.57, reaching its lowest point in nearly three weeks. The intraday decline widened to 3.36%, and the total market value evaporated by over $30 billion in a single day.
——Technical collapse: On the 4-hour chart, ETH price broke through the upward channel at $3625, and the Supertrend indicator flipped to a bear market signal at $3899, marking the first time since mid July that the - DI line in the DMI indicator surged to 30.4 (+DI only 11.0), with bearish forces dominating the market.
——Chain liquidation: The pre-set "hunting trap" in the range of 3600-3700 US dollars triggered a multi order liquidation of 179 million US dollars across the entire network, with high leverage retail investors becoming the biggest victims.
Double Slayer: The Fatal Resonance between Macro Negative and Market Sentiment
——The Federal Reserve's Eagle Claw Raid: Despite keeping interest rates unchanged at 4.25% -4.50%, Powell's statement that he has not decided to cut interest rates in September has pushed the probability of a rate cut from 60% to 43%. The US dollar index (DXY) is approaching 98.7, putting collective pressure on risk assets.
——Tariff Black Swan: The global new tariffs launched by the Trump administration at midnight on August 1st, including import tariffs of 50% on Brazil and 39% on Switzerland, have intensified market panic, causing S&P 500 futures and cryptocurrency assets to plummet simultaneously.
——Liquidity depletion: Over 640000 ETH (approximately $2.34 billion) pledged for unlocking are in the queue, with short-term selling pressure like a hanging sword.
Weird Deviation: Whales Against the Trend Swallow Blood stained Chips from Retail Investors
——When retail investors panic and sell, whales and institutions are frantically shopping:
——Whale night bottom fishing: On July 31st, a giant whale on the chain transferred $900 million worth of ETH from the exchange. On August 1st alone, two new addresses bought 68297 ETH ($252 million).
——Greed of ETF institutions: The US spot Ethereum ETF reversed the trend and attracted gold, with a cumulative inflow of $5.43 billion in July reaching a historical high. BlackRock increased its holdings by 27000 ETH ($100 million) in a single day.
——Accumulation strategy continues: Since July, 12 new Whale wallets have accumulated 790000 ETH ($2.92 billion), forming a polar relationship with retail behavior.
Life and death checkpoint: Does the technical aspect point to a deeper abyss
——The current ETH is hanging on key support bands:
——The defense line is in urgent need: If the lower limit of the $3625 channel cannot be recovered within the day, the next support will drop to $3594 (100 EMA in 4 hours), and if lost, it may slide into the abyss of $3307 (200 EMA).
——Options market warning: A large number of investors are buying Bitcoin put options to hedge risks, ETH risk reversal indicator is flattening, and $4000 has become a "selling pressure wall".
——When retail investors leave in despair in the notice of liquidation, the cold wallet of Giant Whale is heating up due to the influx of ETH - this sharp decline is not the end, but a bloody ritual of capital redistribution!
Operation suggestion:
BTC 113200 long, first target to see 114100, second target to see 114950;
ETH 3500 long, first target is 3575, second target is 3630.
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Disclaimer: The above content only represents the author's personal opinion and is for communication and sharing purposes only. It does not represent the position or viewpoint of AiCoin and does not constitute any investment advice. Based on this investment, there may be external contacts, which are not related to AiCoin, and the consequences shall be borne by oneself