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Today, August 12, 2025, global investors are focused on the upcoming release of US CPI data. The financial market is holding its breath, while Ethereum is at the epicenter of an epic market trend - ETH's short-term implied volatility has soared to over 70%, more than double the expected volatility of Bitcoin. Just this weekend, the price of ETH broke through $4300 in a flash, with a weekly increase of up to 21%. However, there are hidden concerns about the deviation between quantity and price behind the market frenzy.
——Countdown to detonation of data nuclear bomb
The decision-making code of the Federal Reserve
The market consensus expects the CPI annual rate to rise slightly by 0.1% to 2.8%. This seemingly small number carries a heavy weight - if the actual data is lower than expected, it will completely lock in the expectation of a September interest rate cut and inject a shot in the arm into risk assets; Unexpectedly rising data may instantly freeze market liquidity, triggering a coordinated pullback between the cryptocurrency market and the US stock market.
Institutional covert battle in the options market
Whales have set up a trap in the financial derivatives market: BTC put options worth $115000-118000 have been heavily subscribed, forming the first line of defense; The open interest contracts of ETH options soared to $13.9 billion, reaching a new high for the year and only one step away from the historical peak. Behind these astronomical figures, there is a clear signal that savvy capital is betting on volatility bursts with real money.
——The life and death line of long short game
The Rampage Bull Market Driven by Institutions
The astonishing increase in ETH over the past week is not accidental. Billions of ETF funds continue to pour in (BlackRock's ETFA size exceeds $10 billion), and 64 listed companies have included ETH in their balance sheets, with a total holding value of up to $10.1 billion. The policy has added fuel to the fire: an administrative order allowing 401 (k) retirement accounts to allocate encrypted assets is imminent, opening the floodgates for pension funds to enter the market.
The Clearing Crisis at the Cliff Edge
Under the surface of carnival, there is a crisis: when the ETH price hits $4010, spot trading volume shrinks by more than 30% compared to before, and the RSI indicator deviates from its peak, issuing a warning. Even more dangerous is the on chain clearing wall - if the price falls below $3848, it will trigger a strong consolidation of $25.48 billion in long positions, while breaking through $4248 only requires clearing $9.67 billion in short positions. The current price is only 2% lower than the multi order liquidation zone, and the risk balance is extremely tilted.
——Two paths to epic market trends
Breaking through the historical high of the golden channel
If the cooling of CPI ignites expectations of interest rate cuts, ETH will gain momentum to hit the historical level of $4800. On a technical level, the EMA20/50/100 moving average has formed a golden bullish pattern, and the Bollinger Bands have widened, providing technical support for short-term eruptions. The cost line of $3800 for institutional whales will become a strong support level.
The Death Cycle of 4-Year Curse
$4000 has always been the "life and death line" for ETH - six attempts to reach this level in history have failed, followed by a sharp drop of 30% -75%. The technical side has lit up the yellow light: RSI has reached 68.99 and is approaching the overbought zone, forming a bearish swallowing pattern on the daily chart. Once the CPI data overheats, prices may rapidly fall to the support band of $3695-3719.
As the clock pointer approaches the moment of CPI release, the implied volatility of 70% in the ETH options market is like a dangerous peak on a seismometer, recording the intense tremors of capital sentiment. When the data is released, the market will race along two distinct paths - either breaking through the historical peak of $4800 in the expectation of interest rate cuts and embarking on a truly epic rise; Either succumb to the specter of inflation and repeat the six failed attempts to hit $4000, falling into the abyss of a clearing waterfall. The tranquility at this moment is precisely the strongest warning of a storm
Operation suggestion:
- BTC 118450 long, first target watch 119750, second target watch 120600;
ETH 4220 long, first target 4275, second target 4335.
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Disclaimer: The above content only represents the author's personal opinion and is for communication and sharing purposes only. It does not represent the position or viewpoint of AiCoin and does not constitute any investment advice. Based on this investment, there may be external contacts, which have nothing to do with AiCoin, and the consequences shall be borne by oneself.
