In the live broadcast of Fuxi Community: BTC's key closing line this week, is it the beginning of a bear market or the continuation of a bull market?

Click on the link to enter Tencent Meeting: https://meeting.tencent.com/p/9309732027 1: The BTC price fluctuated between $113381 and $113562, falling about 10% -15% from the historical high of $124481 on August 13th. This correction reflects short-term market fatigue, but the overall trend remains bullish, with buyers quickly intervening in the downturn, indicating strong demand support. Over the past week, BTC has fallen by approximately 1.5%, while trading volume has increased by 34% to $48 billion, indicating increased market activity despite a short-term slowdown in momentum. 2: Technical analysis shows that BTC is trending upwards in the medium to long term. The 200 day moving average (SMA) remains bullish at around $103250 as macro support. On the 50th day, SMA also showed an upward trend, but on the 20th day, SMA flattened, indicating short-term neutrality. The key support levels include $111900, $107400, and $105200, and if they fall below, it may trigger further downward movement to the psychological level of $100000. The resistance levels are at historical highs of $124533 and $118145. 3: In terms of indicators, RSI (period 21) is 46.86, below the 50 neutral line, indicating seller dominance; The MACD is -766.13, the signal line is -631.35, and the histogram is negative, confirming the bearish trend. The ADX (21st period) is 25.31, indicating an increased trend intensity but a negative direction. The StochRSI shows oversold, which may trigger a short-term rebound, but is limited within the overall bear market framework. Bollinger Bands are expanding, prices are approaching the lower limit, and volatility is increasing. Fibonacci retracement shows 0.618 ($114049) as the current battlefield, and if breached, it will expose 0.5 ($111058). 4: According to derivative data, open interest has decreased, financing rates are high and positive, but demand for put options has increased. Deribit's 180 day skewness is -0.42, with the most negative being in June 2023, when institutional hedging increased. The fear and greed index shifts towards fear, reflecting emotional changes. The analysis of the reasons for the correction is due to multiple factors. Firstly, technical exhaustion: BTC has been experiencing an upward trend for six consecutive weeks and has entered its seventh week. The historical cycle shows a correction in weeks 6-8. In the cycles of 2013, 2017, and 2021, there was a 30% pullback after similar upward movements. Secondly, macro uncertainty: The expectation of the Federal Reserve's September interest rate cut is delayed, and investors are cautious before the Jackson Hole meeting. The escalation of geopolitical conflicts may suppress risky assets. Regulatory concerns have intensified, such as the Genius Act proposal or global tax rule tightening. On chain data: Short term holders panic and sell, with losses exceeding 20000 BTC transferred to the exchange. Whale activity has decreased, with no large purchases; The computing power of the mining pool is concentrated at over 51%, leading to an increase in network vulnerability. Although ETFs have received $12 billion in inflows, they have been selling moderately recently. In addition, institutional redistribution: A whale sold $121 million worth of BTC and opened a long position of $301 million worth of ETH. These factors combined have caused the market to shift from greed to fear. Despite corrections in fundamental support and risk, the fundamentals remain strong. The historical pattern supports a rebound after the 2024 halving, with supply shocks driving prices. Institutional adoption acceleration: Over 200 companies hold BTC, Blackstone has been exposed for over $100 billion, and BTC reserves have been established in the United States/Texas. The Trump administration's pro cryptocurrency policies, such as the national BTC reserve, enhance legitimacy. 5: Risks include regulatory tightening (such as SEC regulations), liquidity shocks, and excessive leverage (neutral to negative futures financing ratios). If it breaks through $111900, there may be a deeper pullback below $83000. History is prone to collapse in September, so we need to be vigilant. 6: Short term outlook: Prices may rise to $115441 on August 22, with an average forecast of $117784 and a peak of $120870. If holding at $114000, EMA9 ($115774) can be tested. Long term analyst targets range from $180000 to $200000, and even $500000 to 2030. VanEck predicts a bimodal cycle with Q4 reaching a new high. This correction may be a health adjustment and a buying opportunity, but long-term investors need to monitor Federal Reserve policies and on chain indicators. Overall bullish, but with high volatility, it is recommended to diversify risks. Tencent Meeting: 9309732027 QQ group: 123116768 Disclaimer: The above content only represents the author's personal opinion and is for communication and sharing purposes only. It does not represent the position or viewpoint of AiCoin and does not constitute any investment advice. Based on this investment, there may be external contacts, which have nothing to do with AiCoin, and the consequences shall be borne by oneself.