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Ethereum has recently fallen into fierce long short competition at the $4400 mark. On one hand, there are giant whales who bargain hunting, while on the other hand, there are retail investors who panic and sell. This showdown will determine the short-term direction of ETH prices.
In the past two weeks, the Ethereum market has experienced a large-scale whale sell-off. According to the data, these large investors sold over 430000 ETH in total, with a total value of up to 1.8 billion US dollars.
This sell-off resulted in the whale account balance dropping to its lowest level in weeks, raising concerns in the market about liquidity and stability. This large-scale exit usually indicates a possibility of reduced liquidity and market adjustment.
However, in this wave of selling, there was a giant whale known as the "Bitcoin OG" that went against the trend. This whale has been continuously selling BTC and buying ETH, and recently completed another $109 million transaction. A total of approximately 3.4 billion US dollars worth of ETH was purchased.
【 02 Retail Investor Behavior, Market Buffer Force 】
In contrast to the selling of giant whales, retail investors remain active. Their participation provides a certain buffering effect for the market, preventing deeper declines.
CryptoQuant's spot trading volume bubble chart shows that Ethereum market activity has entered a "heating up" phase, with large transactions occurring on major exchanges. This indicates that market interest is on the rise, but it is also accompanied by higher volatility risks.
The clearing data highlights the fragility of the market. The liquidation amount for short positions reached $23 million, while the liquidation amount for long positions was only $2.4 million. These losses indicate that overly bearish bets are actually damaged when the ETH price stabilizes around $4472.
【 03 Technical Duel, Key Battle for $4400 】
From a technical analysis perspective, the $4400 level is crucial for Ethereum. According to technical analysis, the main pressure levels in the market are $4406 and $4472.
If the volume can break through $4472, it may further rise to the range of $4550-4600. On the other hand, important support levels are at $4300 and $4263, and if it falls below the $4300 support level, it may accelerate its decline to around $4200.
The daily chart shows that ETH remains above the 20 day moving average (EMA), around $4384, and the 50 day EMA is around $4004, providing broader support for the market.
【 04 Future Trends, Interweaving of Long and Short Factors 】
Ethereum is currently facing a complex situation of multiple intertwined factors. The selling of giant whales, sustained selling pressure, and overheated spot activity have all put pressure on the market.
However, despite these challenges, clearing trends indicate that short sellers are still relatively vulnerable. If retail demand and leverage positions can continue to offset the impact of whale exits, Ethereum may still maintain relative stability.
After analyzing the Spot Taker CVD (cumulative trading volume difference) over the past 90 days, it was found that Ethereum's order flow is significantly biased towards sellers. Positive selling exceeded market buying demand, further exacerbating the bearish pressure brought by whale selling.
Technical analysis shows that if ETH can break through $4472 in volume, it may open the way to $4550-4600.
But if it falls below the support of $4300, it may accelerate its decline to $4200. In this battle between whales and retail investors, trading volume will be the key determining factor - sustained capital inflows may push ETH to test the resistance level of $4500, while profit taking may trigger a deeper pullback.
Operation suggestion:
- BTC 111000 long, first target watch 112350, second target watch 113555;
ETH 4265 long, first target at 4330, second target at 4395.
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Disclaimer: The above content only represents the author's personal opinion and is intended to assist investors in understanding information related to the capital market. It does not constitute any investment advice and does not represent the position or viewpoint of AiCoin. The market is risky and investments should be made with caution.
