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[PCE Data Eases Rate Cut Concerns, Market May Face a Busy Trading Week Next Week] After the release of the PCE data, the possibility of a rate cut by the Federal Reserve at its September 16-17 meeting still exists. Michael Lorizio, Head of U.S. Rates Trading at Manulife Investment Management, stated that the latest PCE data reduces the risk of inflation posing a threat to the September rate cut plan, and inflation factors are unlikely to significantly impact rate cut expectations. Meanwhile, long-term bond yields rose on Friday, primarily driven by position-closing operations ahead of the long weekend and month-end portfolio adjustments. Some interest rate hedging trades also influenced the market. Lorizio expects that as market participants return from summer vacations next week, the corporate bond market will see a significant recovery, with activity in the primary market and spread product markets fully resuming. Additionally, the August employment data, set to be released next Friday, may serve as a key reference indicator for the Federal Reserve's near-term policy decisions.
In the past 12 hours, large transactions have shown that the main funds have intensified their long short game, with the total buying and selling amount exceeding 20 million US dollars, and the power is basically balanced. However, it is worth noting that the latest two large market buy orders have accumulated over 4.8 million US dollars, indicating a clear intention and potentially laying the groundwork for a short-term rebound. At the same time, prices are still suppressed by the EMA24/52 moving average, and the medium to long term trend is weak, but the cross star pattern suggests that a change in direction is imminent. The double bottom pattern of RSI and the strengthening of MACD momentum indicate an increased probability of rebound, and caution should be exercised against the main force's upward trend. Open membership, track large transaction trends in real-time, and lock in major abnormal signals in advance! The data is sourced from the PRO member's [BTC/USDT Binance 2-hour] candlestick, for reference only, and does not constitute any investment advice.
[Next Week's Macro Outlook: Fed Policy Moves and Labor Market Data in Focus] The cryptocurrency market experienced significant sell-offs this week, with Bitcoin facing double-top risks and Ethereum pulling back after hitting a new high last Saturday. Although Ethereum's outlook is slightly better than Bitcoin's, its trend remains influenced by Bitcoin. Next week, the market will focus on Federal Reserve officials' speeches and key economic data: - Wednesday 21:00, St. Louis Fed President Bullard discusses the economy and monetary policy; - Wednesday 22:00, U.S. July job openings and factory orders data; - Thursday 02:00, Federal Reserve releases the Beige Book on economic conditions; - Friday 20:30, U.S. August non-farm payroll report, unemployment rate, and wage data. A weakening labor market could strengthen expectations for a rate cut in September and increase the likelihood of a third 25-basis-point rate cut this year. Powell previously emphasized that inflation risks are tilted to the upside, while employment risks are tilted to the downside.
[Incoming ECB Governing Council Member Kocher: Current monetary policy is more data-dependent, so maintaining stability and reliability is crucial] Golden Finance reports, Incoming ECB Governing Council Member Kocher: Current monetary policy is more data-dependent, so maintaining stability and reliability is crucial. Austria will continue to adopt a prudent stance and ensure that price stability remains the core objective of all decisions made by the Austrian Central Bank. (Jin10)
OKX - CFX is currently priced at $0.1986, with a 24-hour increase of 10.09%. 24-hour transaction volume of 300 million US dollars, a decrease of 21.64%, for reference only