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Near the historical high of $124000, the journey of Bitcoin is a vast cryptocurrency universe. Where is its ultimate destination?
01 Institutional Promotion: Bull Market Catalyst
The participation of institutional investors has become the core driving force behind the Bitcoin bull market.
Japan's largest corporate Bitcoin holder, Metaplanet, purchased 5268 bitcoins in early October.
And Michael Saylor's companies have also continued to increase their holdings, bringing their total holdings to 640031, worth up to $47.35 billion.
The approval of Bitcoin ETF has led to a crazy influx of institutional funds.
Since the launch of the US spot Bitcoin ETF in 2024, these financial products have accumulated over 1.29 million BTC, accounting for approximately 6% of the total supply.
BlackRock's IBIT has become the largest ETF in terms of managed asset size, occupying a significant market share.
02 Macro support: devaluation of fiat currency and expectations of interest rate cuts
Against the backdrop of the continuous depreciation of global fiat currencies, investors are increasingly interested in hard assets such as Bitcoin.
Economist Noel Acheson pointed out, "In previous cycles, we have never seen global fiat currencies depreciate so continuously
The expectation of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve also contributes to the rise of Bitcoin.
Citigroup believes that the weak labor market data in the United States has increased the possibility of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates in October, which has become an important catalyst for the rise of Bitcoin.
Venture capitalist Tim Draper even boldly predicted that 'in the next 10 to 20 years, the US dollar will disappear'.
03 Technical Analysis: Bullish Signals and Cycle Patterns
From a technical perspective, Bitcoin has broken through key resistance levels and stabilized above $119500, laying the foundation for further upward movement.
The bullish flag shape suggests that the price of Bitcoin may further rise to $124200, and may even reach $131250.
The four-year halving cycle of Bitcoin is also playing a role. Historical data shows that it takes about 540 days for each halving to reach a new high in price.
According to this pattern, after halving in April 2024, the new high point for this round may be around October 2025.
04 Long term outlook: The journey of the stars and the sea
Some market experts are extremely optimistic about the long-term potential of Bitcoin.
Analysts at Porkopolis Economics predict that Bitcoin may experience a 2-3 fold increase by the end of the year, with a potential price between $250000 and $375000.
His analysis is based on a long-standing 'force trend' that has dominated previous market cycles.
As Bitcoin evolves from a speculative outlier to an institutional mainstream, its role in the global economic narrative is becoming increasingly complex.
Bitcoin shows a negative correlation with the weakening of the US dollar and potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, which enhances its attractiveness as a hedge against fiat currency depreciation.
The price volatility of Bitcoin has significantly decreased in recent years, and by 2025, its annualized volatility will have decreased by 75% compared to the historical average.
This trend is attributed to the influx of institutional investors and long-term holders locking in positions.
With the continuous evolution of the global economy, Bitcoin's performance seems to be confirming its position as "digital gold".
The star sea of Bitcoin may not be a specific price number, but rather its gradual integration into the traditional financial system and becoming a global reserve asset.
In the future, private digital currencies and central bank digital currencies will coexist for a long time, and the journey of Bitcoin has just begun.
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Disclaimer: The above content only represents the author's personal opinion and is intended to assist investors in understanding information related to the capital market. It does not constitute any investment advice and does not represent the position or viewpoint of AiCoin. The market is risky and investments should be made with caution.
