On November 18, Sentora (formerly IntoTheBlock) stated that Bitcoin long-term holders typically accumulate during bear markets and distribute during bull markets, forming a 'cup-shaped' cyclical pattern. This round of decline has been slower, and long-term holders have not actively 'buy the dip,' indicating that cyclical behavior is undergoing changes.
The increase in institutional funds, structured products, and regulated investment tools is influencing the timing and manner of market demand. Recently, cautious market sentiment has suppressed spot buying pressure, with noticeable selling pressure emerging over the past two weeks. In the long term, Bitcoin bear markets may still occur, but their characteristics may rely more on valuation, investment mandates, and risk frameworks rather than panic and euphoria.
The participation of professional capital may help the market establish a more solid bottom, but downside risks still exist. Future price trends may depend more on the scale of professional capital positions and the timing of their accumulation.
