[Delphi Digital: Multiple Factors Drive the First Positive Net Liquidity Environment Since 2022]
On December 4, crypto market research firm Delphi Digital stated that the Federal Reserve's rate path for next year is the clearest it has been in years, with expectations of a 25 basis point rate cut in December 2025, bringing the federal funds rate down to approximately 3.5%-3.75%. Forward curves predict at least three rate cuts in 2026, with year-end rates dropping to around 3%.
Delphi Digital pointed out that quantitative tightening ended on December 1, the Treasury General Account is planned to gradually decrease, and the overnight reverse repurchase agreements have been fully depleted. These factors collectively contribute to the first positive net liquidity environment since early 2022.
In addition, the secured overnight financing rate and the federal funds rate have fallen back to the high range of 3%, and real interest rates have retreated from their 2023-2024 peaks without experiencing a sharp collapse. Delphi Digital believes that the policy environment in 2026 will shift to a more accommodative stance, benefiting long-duration assets, large-cap stocks, gold, and digital assets supported by structural demand.