According to Cointelegraph, although the cryptocurrency fear and greed index on March 10th continued to show "extreme fear," a Bitcoin market simulation still predicts a bullish trend in the second half of 2025. Cryptocurrency researcher Mark Quant analyzed the price of Bitcoin using Monte Carlo simulations and provided a six-month forecast for the cryptocurrency asset. The Monte Carlo model is a computational method that simulates price prediction and evaluates risk through random sampling. It can generate multiple possible scenarios based on variable factors such as volatility and market trends. Based on an initial price of $82655, this study estimates that the average final price of Bitcoin by the end of September 2025 will be $258445. However, from a broader perspective, the price of Bitcoin is expected to fluctuate between $51430 (5th percentile return) and $713000 (95th percentile return).
However, it is important to note that Monte Carlo models rely heavily on the geometric Brownian motion (GBM) model, which assumes that asset values follow a random path with constant drift parameters. In this analysis, the inherent volatility of Bitcoin is incorporated into the model, capturing long-term historical performance and patterns while adapting to future changes. Essentially, Monte Carlo analysis is like rolling a dice with uncertainty. Last week, Quant also emphasized the correlation between the total cryptocurrency market value and the global liquidity index, indicating that the total market value may reach a new high of over $4 trillion in the second quarter of 2025.
