Data scientist: Polymarket predicts world events with an accuracy rate of up to 90% in the encrypted prediction market
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On March 21st, according to CoinDesk, data scientist Alex McCullough's research showed that Polymarket has an accuracy rate of 90% when predicting events that will occur one month later, and an accuracy rate of 94% in the first four hours before the event. McCullough analyzed the historical data of Polymarket and after removing extreme probability values, found that the platform slightly but consistently overestimates the probability of events occurring within most probability ranges, which may be influenced by factors such as herd mentality, low liquidity, and participants' preference for high-risk bets.