Luxor 的 Aaron Forster 谈论比特币挖矿的日益复杂化

Tonight at 20:30 (UTC+8), the United States will release its non farm payroll data for March. The market expects to add 140000 new jobs, lower than the previous value of 151000, and the unemployment rate is expected to remain stable at 4.1%. Tonight's non farm payroll data may have hidden concerns: employment growth may experience a slight decline, and once it falls below the 100000 mark, it may trigger market risk aversion. Focus on Powell's speech, which will be his first appearance after Trump's reciprocal tariff plan is announced. Before and after the data is released, the market fluctuates greatly, please take good risk control measures!

Odaily Daily reported that OKX's local subsidiary was fined 1.1 million euros (approximately 1.2 million US dollars) by the Malta Financial Intelligence and Analysis Unit (FIAU) this month for violating Malta's anti money laundering regulations. The fine was imposed during an on-site compliance inspection in April 2023, during which multiple violations were discovered, some of which were deemed "serious and systematic" by the authorities. FIAU stated that the business risk assessment conducted by OKX failed to fully identify the potential money laundering risks associated with the products it provides. (Bloomberg)

BlockBeats News: On April 4th, Justin Sun posted on social media that First Digital Trust (FDT) has fallen into a state of insolvency - with total liabilities exceeding total assets, essentially in a state of financial bankruptcy. Therefore, according to international banking regulatory regulations, banking institutions must meet strict capital adequacy requirements, otherwise they will face the risk of revoking their banking licenses. However, it is shocking that FDT has not only been insolvent once, but has also been insolvent for three consecutive years - with a net asset of negative HKD 100 million at the end of 2024. This does not include the huge losses caused by its large-scale misappropriation of user assets. But strangely, as we were discussing, the company was still publicly raising billions of dollars. The real question that Hong Kong regulators and law enforcement agencies need to answer is: How could this situation happen under their supervision? The fact that FDT is still operating today is a great irony to the rule of law in Hong Kong.

Despite steep declines in U.S. equities, bitcoin shows surprising strength, holding above key technical levels.

According to BlockBeats, on April 4th, on chain data analyst Murphy posted on social media that during bull market corrections, BTC prices often hit STH-RPC multiple times, which is the average short-term holder turnover cost, currently at $93000; Since February this year, BTC has not experienced a decent rebound. From November 2024 to January 2025, STH's profit realization accounted for 56% of the total realized value in the market, while LTH accounted for 42%. At that time, everyone had ample profit margins and led the cash out behavior. During the rebound period from March 13th to March 25th, LTH's profit realization accounted for 70%, while STH only had 10%; This indicates that the cash out behavior at this time is mainly for long-term holders, and short-term holders no longer have much profit margin. From a data perspective, in history, whether it is a deep bear or bull market correction, it will form a temporary bottom after LTH gradually turns into a loss state, or even a bottom of a large cycle. Because there is nothing to sell (surrender), a bottom is formed. The cost base for long-term holders closest to the current price is around $81000, and this group has a size of approximately over 300000 BTC. That is to say, when the BTC price drops below $80000, these BTC held by LTH will enter a loss state (so this price also has a strong supporting effect). In addition, over time, when more short-term chips trapped at high positions passively become long-term chips, the same effect will be produced; Overall, it raises the cost base of LTH. In any case, until this' problem 'is effectively resolved, it will always be within the framework of' looking for rebound rather than reversal '.