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The homework in the past two days has not been difficult, mainly because Trump has not intervened in the market much these days. Apart from increasing tariffs on steel adjustments last Friday, he has continued to maintain communication with China. Currently, the market is very familiar with Trump's TACO. As long as Trump threatens the market with tariffs, it will start to short the S&P 500. If it is fast, the next day will come, and if it is slow, the impact of tariffs will gradually fade after a week. Basically, the more aggressive the situation is, the more likely it will suspend this tariff scheme for a short time. From the previous perspective, Trump's final adjustment period for tariff parity was on July 8. In the next month, tariff information is likely to still be one of the factors influencing the market trend. Another factor is the monetary policy of the Federal Reserve. Although the data on job vacancies was released today, it does not equal the non farm payroll and unemployment rates, so its impact on the market is not significant. The key is still to look at Friday's unemployment, employment, and wage data.
However, for cryptocurrency, I feel that Trump is serious. After the high-profile announcement last week that it has raised 2.3 billion dollars to purchase BTC and other cryptocurrencies, today it seems that Trump Group is preparing to develop cryptocurrency wallets and decentralized transaction applications. The president's fate, on the one hand, can be seen as the United States is really focusing on the development of cryptocurrency, on the other hand, it is likely to indicate the focus of the development of cryptocurrency in the United States.
Looking back at the BTC data, the turnover rate has significantly increased today. Upon checking the data, it appears that there have been two transfers of BTC on exchanges with a total volume exceeding 230000 coins, most likely due to the consolidation of exchange wallets. This situation occurs on average once every quarter and does not affect the price. Therefore, in reality, the BTC price is still maintaining a narrow range of fluctuations today.
Recently, both Trump and the Federal Reserve have reduced their influence on the market. Although many officials of the Federal Reserve expressed their concern about tariffs in their speeches last week, they also told the market that if tariffs are not determined one day, the Federal Reserve will not make a clear answer one day, so the market has adjusted its expectations for interest rate reduction. At present, the probability of interest rate reduction in the third quarter is less than 28%. Although there has been a significant increase in turnover, the range of $93000 to $98000 remains the most stable support. From the current perspective, as long as investors in this position do not experience a significant exit, the impact on the price will not be significant
Operation suggestion:
BTC 104850 long. First target: 106000. Second target: 107200
ETH 2500 long, first target at 2580, second target at 2650
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Disclaimer: The above content only represents the author's personal opinion and is for communication and sharing purposes only. It does not represent the position or viewpoint of AiCoin and does not constitute any investment advice. Based on this investment, there may be external contacts, which have nothing to do with AiCoin, and the consequences shall be borne by oneself.
