洪灏：下半年 BTC 仍会创新高，其价格对市场流动性非常敏感

Click on the link to enter Tencent Meeting: https://meeting.tencent.com/p/9850662513 Detailed analysis of ETH's recent market and future trends in the live broadcast room, layout and implement strategy sheets! Late at night, Ethereum once again staged a shocking scene: the price plummeted below $2500, plummeting 12% within 24 hours, and the market value evaporated by over $10 billion. Dramatically, institutions such as BlackRock increased their holdings by over $148 million in a single day against the trend, and Trump affiliated funds even swept 4468 ETH in a sharp decline. Why is it still difficult to prevent a collapse despite such a huge investment? Behind it is a carefully orchestrated value war on Wall Street. 1、 The three major bottlenecks of institutional bottom fishing failure 1. Capital differentiation and strategic suppression of institutions In the first three months of 2025, Ethereum ETF had a net outflow of $240 million, while Bitcoin ETF earned $790 million during the same period. This differentiation exposes the true intentions of institutions: the "digital gold" attribute of Bitcoin is more in line with traditional asset management logic, while the complexity of ETH's smart contracts makes its valuation difficult. More importantly, giants such as BlackRock hold $500 million in ETH but refuse to pledge it, creating panic selling by suppressing market sentiment, only to attract funds at lower levels. Data shows that when ETH fell below $2000, BlackRock immediately went against the trend and increased its position. 2. The fatal shackles of the pledge mechanism There are three paradoxes in the current Ethereum staking: Misalignment of returns: ETF pledged returns belong to the trust, and investors can only indirectly benefit through net worth, with 3.12% annualized returns being virtually non-existent; Liquidity trap: staking takes 58 days to enter and 29 days to exit, which is like a risk multiplier in a volatile market; Centralized backlash: Coinbase custody accounts for over 27%, and the decentralized narrative has completely collapsed. When the yield of US treasury bond bonds reached 4.8%, institutions naturally abandoned ETH and turned to risk-free US bonds. 3. Ecological bleeding and competitive strangulation Solana crushed the Ethereum mainnet and Layer2 total (20 million transactions) with a daily processing volume of 65 million transactions, causing developers to accelerate their defection. The prosperity of Layer2 has become a parent "coffin nail": DApps such as Arbitrum on the chain have grown by 300% in three months, Base daily activity has exceeded 2 million, and ETH has completely become a "gas fee voucher". Capital synchronized migration, new hotspots such as MEME coin and RWA gathered on Solana and Ton chains, and the proportion of Ethereum TVL plummeted from 56% to 32%. 2、 Leveraged liquidation and the death spiral of derivatives The sharp drop triggered a chain of explosions on the chain, and a giant whale shorted ETH with 50 times leverage on the Hyperliquid platform, triggering the liquidation of 160000 ETH (worth $306 million), with a single day decline expanding to 14%. The derivatives market is facing simultaneous challenges: despite the continuous decline in prices, ETH open contracts have increased by $17.5 billion, perpetual contract funding rates remain negative, and the cost of short positions is extremely low. When panic emotions combine with high leverage, institutional bottom fishing funds are instantly swallowed up by the whale of derivatives. 3、 The Nirvana Signal at the Darkest Moment There is still a turning point in the desperate situation: Technological breakthrough: Pectra upgrade will shorten the pledge unlocking cycle from 27 days to 6 days, and the market value of liquidity pledged tokens may double to $68 billion; Profit restructuring: BlackRock is applying for ETF pledge function, and if approved, it may attract $12 billion in institutional funds annually; Secret weapon: The V-God team is advancing the integration of ZK-EVM and AI agents, which may reignite technological beliefs. When Wall Street vultures complete their chip harvest, Ethereum's phoenix rebirth may truly begin. But at this moment, the market is still under the icy gaze of institutions, plunging into a deeper abyss of value reconstruction. Operation suggestion: BTC 107500 long. First target: 108400. Second target: 109100 ETH 2480 long first target to see 2550 second target to see 2600 Join the language community communication group to obtain more services 1. Real time troubleshooting (online one-on-one question answering and sorting) 2. Professional technical analysis and theoretical learning 3. Construction and improvement of trading system- 4. Live streaming courses every day, contract termination, real-time order making, to help you successfully land! Every day, there are teachers in the group who provide precise positioning to answer questions and offer free guidance. Tencent Meeting Live: 985-066-2513 DingTalk Group Number: 120320009032 Every day, there are teachers in the group who arrange precise positioning to answer questions and provide free guidance Disclaimer: The above content only represents the author's personal opinion and is for communication and sharing purposes only. It does not represent the position or viewpoint of AiCoin and does not constitute any investment advice. Based on this investment, there may be external contacts, which have nothing to do with AiCoin, and the consequences shall be borne by oneself.

Odaily Daily News - Confirmation founder Nick Tomaino stated in an article today that the team firmly supports Ethereum because without it, the entire industry cannot continue to move forward. He emphasized that the values of trustworthiness, neutrality, open source, and permissionless innovation must be continuously inherited and disseminated. Tomaino pointed out that some current popular trends, such as venture capital chains and enterprises adopting Ethereum vault strategies, although not directly related to the above values, do not mean they are bad. He quoted Hal Finney's viewpoint from 33 years ago, saying, "Computers can be used to liberate and protect people, rather than control them

The OKX H/USDT perpetual funding rate is currently -1.00%, and short positions need to pay funding fees to long positions, indicating a high bearish sentiment in the market. AiCoin [PC - Home - Popular Rankings] has launched the "Fund Rate" ranking, which provides a list of rate arbitrage opportunities. Capital fees are an important mechanism for anchoring spot prices in perpetual contracts, used to balance long and short sentiment. When the funding rate is greater than 0, long positions pay funding fees to short positions; When the funding rate is less than 0, short sellers pay funding fees to long sellers.

In the past 12 hours, BTC's large transactions have shown a clear bias towards selling, with a cumulative net outflow of $2.12 million and a sell to buy ratio of 1: 1.34. Especially in the latest 1-hour cycle, there have been multiple large market sell orders exceeding $1 million, further strengthening short-term downward pressure. Considering that the current price is below the EMA24/52 moving average, the overall trend is weak. On the candlestick chart, the flat top pattern and the decrease in trading volume also confirm the suppressive effect of resistance levels, and the trend may continue to decline. Activate membership immediately, track key trends, and grasp precise buying and selling opportunities! The data is sourced from the PRO member's [BTC/USDT Binance 1-hour] candlestick, for reference only, and does not constitute any investment advice.

According to @ ai_9684xtpa monitoring, the institution that has cumulatively recharged 38100 ETH to major exchanges in the past six days is suspected to be Arthapala, a suspected staking and verification service provider. Its other three affiliated addresses have once again recharged 6789 ETH to Binance, increasing the total amount of ETH transferred to exchanges in the past week to 44889 ETH, worth 113 million US dollars.