[Wintermute: Cryptocurrency Performance Continues to Lag, Four-Year Cycle Theory Invalidated]
Cryptocurrency market maker Wintermute stated that despite a supportive macroeconomic environment, including interest rate cuts, the end of quantitative tightening, and stock markets nearing all-time highs, the cryptocurrency market continues to underperform compared to traditional asset classes. The global liquidity expansion has failed to drive capital inflows into the cryptocurrency market. Stablecoin supply has grown by 50% this year, increasing by $100 billion, but ETF inflows have stagnated since the summer, with BTC ETF assets under management remaining around $150 billion. Digital asset trading activity has significantly declined. Among altcoins, gaming tokens saw a weekly drop of 21%, while Layer 2 networks and meme coins fell by 19% and 18%, respectively. Only the AI and DePIN sectors showed relative resilience. Wintermute pointed out that the traditional four-year cycle theory is no longer applicable to mature markets, with liquidity becoming the key driving factor. The firm will closely monitor ETF inflows and digital asset trading activity as critical indicators for market recovery.