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The U.S. will release its October non-farm payroll data at 9:30 p.m. on Friday. The market expects non-farm payrolls to increase by approximately 59,000 to 65,000 in October, a slight increase from the initial figure of 29,000 in September. The CME FedWatch Tool showed that traders' expectations for a further rate hike in December fell to 69.1% from 82.7% the previous day. AI Interpretation: This non-farm payroll data is a key indicator for measuring the supply and demand balance in the US labor market. Changes in employment directly determine the marginal adjustment space for the Federal Reserve's monetary policy. The downward revision of market expectations for interest rate hikes reflects investors' deep concerns about an economic slowdown. This data will be decisive evidence in determining whether the US economy will achieve a soft landing or face an increased risk of recession. The actual performance of the job market will directly reshape the market's pricing logic for the Fed's subsequent interest rate path.

[Indosuez Wealth Management: Market Expectations for Fed and ECB Rate Hikes Are Too Aggressive] On November 6th, Indosuez Wealth Management believes that the market is pricing in a more hawkish path for the Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank's interest rates than its baseline scenario. Strategists Lucas Merrick and portfolio manager Alexander Bell expect stable economic growth and a gradual return of inflation to normalcy to limit the room for central banks to tighten monetary policy. They stated that accumulating enough moderate underlying inflation and economic growth data to achieve this scenario will take time, during which time the bond market will remain volatile. The money market currently expects the Fed to raise rates approximately 1.5 times and the ECB to raise rates twice over the next 12 months. (Source: Jinshi)

The US unemployment rate data for October will be released at 21:30 tonight. BNP Paribas, Capital Economics, Danske Bank, High Frequency Economics, Barclays, JPMorgan Chase, Nomura Securities, and UBS Group predict a 4.1% growth rate. ABN AMRO, Morgan Stanley, ANZ, BMO, Berenberg, Bank of America Merrill Lynch, Jefferies Group, Citigroup, Commerzbank, Daiwa Capital, Goldman Sachs, Commonwealth Bank of Australia, HSBC, ING, Sumitomo Mitsui, Deutsche Bank, National Bank of Canada, Pansen Macro, Standard Chartered, Steifel, Spartan Capital, Allied Bank of Ireland, TD Securities, and Wells Fargo all predict 4.2%. Mizuho Securities and Westpac Bank forecast 4.3%, while Reuters expects 4.2%. AI Interpretation: As a core indicator of the non-farm payroll report, the unemployment rate directly determines the Federal Reserve's assessment of the degree of cooling in the labor market. Market divergences in predictions for this indicator reflect the current interplay between economic growth and employment resilience. The final performance of this data will directly revise market pricing in the Fed's monetary policy path. If the data remains within the current range, it will confirm that the labor market is in equilibrium, thus supporting the Fed's decision to maintain current interest rate levels.

The Federal Reserve kept the target range for the federal funds rate unchanged at 3.75%-4.00% last week and acknowledged that inflation was high. The market expects the Fed to raise interest rates in December. Investment analyst Michael Claymer believes that if the October jobs report meets expectations and the unemployment rate does not rise significantly, the market's assessment of the Fed's policy path will remain unchanged. If job growth exceeds forecasts, the unemployment rate falls, and wage growth is strong, investors will reassess the number of rate hikes and the end of the rate hike cycle. MarketWatch statistics show that since January 2025, non-farm payroll data has exceeded market expectations 11 times and fallen short of expectations 10 times, with the average deviation between actual data and forecasts reaching tens of thousands of jobs. AI Interpretation: The Federal Reserve's decision to maintain interest rates clarifies the tone of the current tightening cycle, and the non-farm payroll data directly determines the marginal adjustment space for subsequent monetary policy. Strong employment performance will force the market to revise its expectations for the end of interest rate hikes and reinforce the necessity of maintaining high interest rates in the long term. Labor market volatility directly influences the Fed's decision-making logic, and better-than-expected employment growth will completely eliminate any room for interest rate cuts in the short term. As a policy indicator, the core impact of this data lies in verifying inflation stickiness through employment resilience, thereby locking in the Fed's hawkish stance.