Xiao Long's revised analysis of three potential $BTC price trajectories: Scenario 1 (Blue Path, Highest Probability ~50%): CPI meets expectations, $BTC pulls back to 75K-76K. Trigger: August core CPI month-over-month aligns with the expected 0.2%, inflation remains "mild but sticky"; Rate hike probability: stays around 60%. $BTC Target: 75,000-76,000 range (whale order zone + Fib 0.382). Scenario 2 (Yellow Path, Second Highest Probability ~30%): CPI comes in higher, $BTC drops to around 73K. Trigger: Core CPI month-over-month at 0.2%-0.3%, higher than expected but not out of control, service inflation remains sticky; Rate hike probability: rises above 70%. $BTC Target: Around 73,000 (Fib 0.5 retracement level + 200-day moving average). Scenario 3 (Red Path, Lowest Probability ~20%): CPI significantly higher, $BTC drops to around 71K. Trigger: Core CPI month-over-month >0.3%, coupled with surging oil prices, market prices in a sharp increase in rate hike probability; Rate hike probability: skyrockets above 80%. $BTC Target: Around 71,000 (Fib 0.618 retracement level, extreme case). All three paths ultimately point to "pullback confirmation before moving upward," with the only difference being the depth. For now, the blue path seems most likely, while the red path requires multiple bearish factors to align. No matter the scenario, once the pullback is complete, just two words: All aboard ❗️