Last night, US stocks dropped, yields surged, but $82K didn’t break! Based on the normal trend, bitcoin:native should’ve continued testing $80K, but the price stopped falling near $82.6K and then recovered back to $84K. This shows that there’s indeed buying support between $82K and $83K, and the previous upward structure hasn’t been broken yet. The 4-hour KDJ has formed a golden cross again, RSI6 has rebounded to around 65, MACD bearish momentum is nearing exhaustion, and open interest has dropped from about 96.2K to 93.2K. This indicates that this rebound happened after leverage was cleared out, not just from contract stacking. However, resilience doesn’t mean a reversal. $83K is this week’s defense line. If it holds, we’ll continue testing $84.5K–$85.5K. Only with a volume breakout above $85.5K can we have a chance to challenge $87K–$87.4K again. If $83K is broken again or $82K is lost, this rally will only be considered an oversold bounce, and $80K will still need to be tested later. ETFs have seen continuous net inflows, and buying interest remains, but momentum is weakening. Institutions have shifted from aggressively buying to low-level accumulation. My take: This week will most likely see some consolidation before choosing a direction. The main range to watch is $82K to $85.5K, and PCE, ISM, and non-farm payrolls will determine which way it breaks. For short-term plays, focus on relative strength. ETH holding above $2,700 has better catch-up potential than most altcoins; SOL is better suited to follow after BTC breaks out; HYPE is currently weaker, and until BTC clears $85.5K, the altcoin buzz feels more like rotation rather than a full-on rally.
