CME Federal Reserve observation data shows that the probability of the Fed keeping interest rates unchanged in October is 82.8%, and the probability of a cumulative 25 basis point rate hike is 17.2%; The probability of keeping interest rates unchanged in December is 6.4%, the probability of a cumulative increase of 25 basis points is 77.8%, and the probability of a cumulative increase of 50 basis points is 15.8%.
AI interpretation: The current market's pricing of the Federal Reserve's short-term policy path is highly focused on maintaining the status quo, reflecting the market's full digestion of the current interest rate level. The high probability of unchanged interest rates indicates that monetary policy has entered an observation period, and the liquidity environment remains stable in the short term. The divergence in market expectations for subsequent interest rate hikes is mainly concentrated at the end of the year, indicating that investors are re evaluating the balance point between inflation and economic growth. This pricing structure directly suppresses the market's aggressive bets on recent policy shifts and strengthens the sustainability of the high interest rate environment.
