[Bonk Guy: Avoid Overtrading and Wait for Opportunities; Exit When the Advantage Fades] BlockBeats reported on October 25th that renowned trader Bonk Guy recounted his experience on October 10th, 2025, when a systemic failure occurred on several large centralized trading platforms, resulting in the largest single-day loss of his career, amounting to eight figures in US dollars, within minutes. In the following weeks and months, he lost millions more due to overtrading. In hindsight, his best option would have been to suspend trading for months, or even at least six months, staying away from trading terminals. However, his eagerness to recoup losses and prove his trading abilities led him to repeatedly enter the market, ultimately committing a common trader mistake. Trading skills, experience, and a trading system are not sufficient to guarantee consistently outperforming the market. Successful trading often depends on market conditions, timing, and luck. Many traders have made huge profits during periods of abundant market opportunities, but the same trading strategies may have completely failed during the 2022 bear market and subsequent periods of scarce opportunities. Traders need to recognize that advantageous strategies differ across market environments, and the ability to promptly assess whether their own advantages still exist is crucial; sometimes, the best trade is no trade at all. Opportunities in the crypto market often concentrate in specific phases. Traders don't need to outperform the market every day, every week, or every month, but rather should identify and capitalize on periods when their advantages are most pronounced. According to a historical cycle framework, crypto bull markets last an average of approximately 1060 days, accounting for 74% of the cycle; bear markets last approximately 380 days, accounting for 26%. If a bull market is defined as a phase where Bitcoin's price is above the 200-day moving average and the market exhibits strong upward momentum, the opportunity window may shorten to approximately 237 days, accounting for 16% of the cycle. These figures depend on the definition of market phases and are not fixed patterns. Rather than forcing trades in unfavorable environments, protecting capital, maintaining clear judgment, and waiting for the next significant opportunity is more important; when lacking an advantage, traders can temporarily exit the market or participate only with a small, risk-averse portion of their capital. [Original Link]