On October 25th, when BTC closed at $80,086, the PSIP (Percentage of Profitable Supply) was 64%. As I mentioned in a previous tweet (see quote), historically, a PSIP below 50% indicates a bottom in a bear market cycle. During the transition from a bear to a bull market, a PSIP below 65% suggests a reasonable pullback. Based on the most recent data point of October 25th, this corresponds to a BTC price of $80,000 or below. Relatively speaking, BTC at $80,000 now is equivalent to BTC at $75,000 on September 15th in terms of cost structure; because the PSIP was also 64% on that day. Of course, if you ask, "Where is the lowest point of this pullback from $87,000?", nobody knows, and I certainly don't either. But what I do know is that anything below this point is worth watching; the lower the PSIP, the higher the cost-effectiveness. Ideally, the PSIP would reach the 55% range, but who can guarantee it will?
