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[Wintermute: Crypto Market Liquidity May Improve in Q1 2026] Crypto market maker Wintermute analyzed that last week's decline in the crypto market was primarily due to the repricing of expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut in December, rather than issues with market fundamentals. Bitcoin needs to re-enter its range to improve market sentiment. Some of the pressure comes from large holders reducing their positions, with the seasonal selling trend from Q4 to Q1 occurring earlier this year, influenced by expectations of the four-year cycle. The global macro environment remains in a loose cycle, with Japan planning to launch a $110 billion stimulus package, China continuing to implement easing policies, and the U.S. quantitative tightening program set to end next month. Wintermute expects liquidity to improve in the first quarter of 2026, with future market catalysts likely to come from policy and interest rate expectations rather than internal liquidity within the crypto industry.

Move introduces verified aliases for crypto transfers and adds an ID layer to self-custody tools.

[Partial Initial Jobless Claims Data Released by the U.S. Government, Most Revised Upward] Data from the U.S. government website shows that initial jobless claims for the week ending October 18 were 232,000, while continuing jobless claims were 1.957 million, higher than the previous week's 1.947 million. Initial jobless claims for the week ending September 20 were revised upward from 218,000 to 219,000, and the four-week average was revised upward from 237,500 to 237,750. Continuing jobless claims for the week ending September 13 were revised downward from 1.926 million to 1.916 million. The U.S. government website has not yet released initial jobless claims data for the weeks ending September 27, October 4, October 11, October 25, November 1, and November 8.

Maximilian Michielsen, an analyst at cryptocurrency ETP issuer 21Shares, stated that the drop in Bitcoin price below $100000 has raised concerns in the market about a bear market, but this decline is considered a short-term correction rather than the beginning of a deep or long-term bear market. Although volatility and consolidation may continue until the end of the year, fundamental factors remain stable. The recent weakness of Bitcoin is mainly affected by forced liquidation, large investor sell offs, ETF fund outflows, and liquidity tightening caused by macro events. Since October, the market has experienced a deleveraging of $32 billion, with a liquidation scale of $3 billion in the past week; Large investors sold approximately $12 billion worth of Bitcoin; The spot Bitcoin ETF experienced a capital outflow of $866 million last Thursday, setting the second highest daily outflow record in history. In addition, the US government shutdown has led to the Treasury Department withdrawing approximately $150 billion in cash from the financial system, exacerbating liquidity tensions. Nevertheless, the selling pressure on long-term investors has significantly weakened, and assets are being transferred to more stable holders. Liquidity conditions are expected to improve, the quantitative tightening in the United States is expected to end in December, government spending will resume, and the global money supply will continue to expand. The attractiveness of Bitcoin as a value storage tool is increasing in the macroeconomic context. Analysis indicates that Bitcoin is currently in a short-term bear market technically, but this decline is more like a valuation reset than a deep bear market. Historical data shows that this magnitude of pullback typically ends within 1 to 3 months and marks the consolidation phase before the next round of uptrend. The long-term fundamentals of Bitcoin remain stable.