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After breaking through the historical high of $120000, Bitcoin faced a wave of profit taking and then fell below $120000. On Wednesday (July 16), Bitcoin maintained a weak upward trend above $117000. After previous attempts to break through failed, high trading volume support, narrow range, and weakened liquidity appeared, indicating market fatigue and waiting for the next round of macro catalytic factors.
Ethereum rose 2.6% to $3066.57 in a volatile 24-hour period, rebounding from a low of 2933.50 and breaking through 3075 driven by institutional fund inflows, record staking volumes, and strong trading volume, demonstrating new bullish momentum.
During the period of risk reduction, Bitcoin performed poorly, but compared to the stock market, it had a slight relative strength and outperformed the stock market after Liberation Day
In addition, while the price is rising, the funding rate is at a historical low, indicating the cautious sentiment of heavily invested traders who remain vigilant against sudden reversals. The average annualized funding rate for the first half of the year was 4.51%, the lowest semi annual average level since December 31, 2022, during the cold winter after the FTX event. ”
The possibility of a long-term pullback in Bitcoin is becoming increasingly low due to the structural imbalance between the surge in demand and the rapid disappearance of supply. Currently, there are far more positive than negative factors. It is expected that there is a "small" possibility of a long-term significant pullback in the next six months.
Once summer ends and liquidity returns, we expect the upward momentum to recover. What is truly worth noting is that Bitcoin is still hitting new highs during the period of the worst liquidity and weakest seasonality of the year.
According to CoinGlass data, the third quarter has consistently been the worst performing quarter for Bitcoin since 2013, with an average return of only 6.32%.
Bitcoin Technology Analysis
After breaking through the resistance zone of $118500, the price of Bitcoin began a new round of rise. BTC accelerated and broke through the resistance of $120000 and $122000. The bulls even pushed the price above $123100, hitting a new historical high of $123140 before beginning a pullback. The BTC price fell below the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level of the rally from a low of $108636 to a high of $123140.
2. Bitcoin is currently trading below the $120500 and 100 hour moving averages. However, the price held at the Fibonacci retracement level of 50% of the increase from $108636 to $123140.
In addition, BTC/USD broke through a bearish trend line resistance at $117300 on the hourly chart. The immediate resistance for upward movement is around $118500, with the first key resistance at the $120000 level and the next resistance possibly at $122000.
If the closing price breaks through the resistance of $122000, the price may further rise. In this case, the price may rise to test the resistance of $123200. Further price increases may push the price towards the $125000 level, with the main target potentially at $130000; If Bitcoin fails to break through the resistance zone of $120000, it may continue to decline. Instant support is around $115850, with the first major support at the $115500 level.
The next support is around $114150. More declines may push the price towards the $112500 support zone. The main support level is at $110500, and if it falls below this level, Bitcoin may further decline.
Main support level: 115500 US dollars, followed by 114150 US dollars.
Main resistance levels: $120000 and $122000.
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