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Institutional frenzy and ETF frenzy: Ethereum hits $4000 bottom line
Is $3600 just the starting point?
On July 20th, the price of Ethereum broke through the $3600 mark strongly, reaching a high of $3669, with a daily increase of 7.79%. It surged 22.24% during the week, setting a new high since January 2025. Behind this surge, institutional funds are pouring in in in a "sweeping" manner - the peak daily net inflow of US spot Ethereum ETFs reached $717 million (approximately RMB 5.1 billion), with BlackRock's ETHA product monopolizing $546.7 million, driving the total ETF holdings to exceed $7.09 billion. If converted in RMB, the daily "clearance" scale of institutions has exceeded 1.4 billion yuan, and the market's ammunition reserves far exceed expectations.
The narrative of 'digital oil' ignites institutional bets
The 'functional value' of Ethereum is being redefined. Former Wall Street banker Vivek Raman and other opinion leaders compared it to "digital oil" - ETH drives transactions by consuming gas, just like oil powers machinery; Its annual circulation is locked at 1.5%, which is highly similar to the oil production adjustment mechanism. This narrative quickly translates into institutional action:
1. Mining company Bitmine Immersion's holdings have exceeded $1 billion, surpassing Ethereum Foundation's holdings of $665 million;
2. Listed company SharpLink Gaming invested $225 million to increase its holdings, becoming the largest institutional holder of ETH;
3. GameSquare and other companies followed the trend and entered the market, making ETH's positioning as a "corporate reserve asset" increasingly clear.
Resonance between technical aspects and market sentiment: Is $4000 within reach
1. Technical indicators provide dual verification for the upward trend:
RSI bowl shaped structure: The relative strength index of Ethereum forms a textbook level bowl shaped curve, with a current reading of 71.43 entering the overbought zone. Similar forms in history have triggered a rise of over 30% by 58%;
2. Circular Bottom Breakthrough: The price has broken through the two month long horizontal resistance of $2855, forming a circular bottom reversal structure. Analyst Micha ë l van de Poppe asserts that "a pullback is a buying opportunity" and targets $4000.
3. The frenzy has pushed expectations to a high of ten thousand points. On chain data shows that ETH active addresses increased by 9.4% in 30 days, network fees skyrocketed by 139% per week, and total locked value (TVL) surged to $78.2 billion, reaching a three-year peak. Analyst Mikybull Crypto predicts based on RSI historical signals: '$7000-10000 or the top of this cycle'.
[Hidden Worries: Fuel and Smoke in the Carnival]
1. Despite strong bullish momentum, risk signals have emerged:
Main force drives up shipments: Some analysts pointed out that after Ethereum failed to hit $3700, main funds began to distribute chips at high levels, and the Bollinger Bands showed extreme overbought, accumulating short-term pullback pressure;
2. Contract explosion surge: In the past 24 hours, ETH contracts across the internet have exploded by over $259 million, and the risk of retail investors becoming "fuel" has sharply increased in the long short dual kill pattern.
Conclusion: Ethereum's $4000 campaign has sounded the horn, with institutional fundraising and on chain activities providing solid support. However, historical experience has shown that excessive leverage driven frenzy often accompanies intense liquidation. If the inflow of ETF funds continues to ferment with the narrative of 'digital oil', thousands of prophecies may come true - but investors need to be vigilant, as behind every 'candle' may be smoke of gunpowder
Operation suggestion:
1. BTC 117500 long. First target: 118500. Second target: 119500;
2. ETH 3600 long, first target at 3680, second target at 3730.
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Disclaimer: The above content only represents the author's personal opinion and is for communication and sharing purposes only. It does not represent the position or viewpoint of AiCoin and does not constitute any investment advice. Based on this investment, there may be external contacts, which have nothing to do with AiCoin, and the consequences shall be borne by oneself.
