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Long Short Duel: The Life and Death Game of Whales
1. The 'long loop' giant whale is aggressively increasing its holdings: On chain data shows that a mysterious giant whale has been continuously increasing its position since July 6th, buying a total of 5642 ETH at an average price of $2537. Even amidst price fluctuations, its floating profit still reached $326000 and showed no signs of taking profit.
2. ICO veteran Whale quietly sold off: In sharp contrast, a legendary Whale who had held millions of ETH since the Ethereum ICO suddenly sold 1000 ETH (worth 2.61 million US dollars). Although still holding 23600 pieces (approximately $61.56 million), this move is interpreted as a warning of short-term risks.
The Four Cornerstones of Long Term Trends: $5000 is Not a Fantasy
1. Continuous infusion of ETF funds: Spot Ethereum ETFs led by institutions such as BlackRock have seen net inflows for eight consecutive weeks, earning $226.4 million last week alone. The average weekly inflow for 11 weeks accounted for 1.6% of managed assets, far exceeding Bitcoin's 0.8%.
2. Supply has tightened to historical highs: the proportion of ETH balance on the exchange has dropped to 13.5%, the lowest since July 2016. However, the holdings of the giant whale increased from 18.1 million to 18.8 million within five weeks, creating a "supply vacuum" by locking in liquidity.
3. The hidden mystery behind the SOPR indicator: ETH has achieved a stable profit and loss ratio (SOPR) of 1.01, indicating that investors refuse to sell at a loss. History has shown that when the indicator continues to rise above 1 during an upward cycle, it often indicates a larger increase.
4. The prototype of V-shaped reversal is emerging: the weekly level V-shaped structure neck line is at $4100. If it breaks through the strong pressure zone of $2800, the technical target will directly point to $4800-5000, with a potential increase of 92% compared to the current price.
This round of breakthrough is not the behavior of individual investors, but the entry of nuclear grade institutional funds behind it:
1. ETF fund flood breaks barriers: cumulative net inflow exceeds $4.01 billion, latest $1 billion inflow in just 15 days
2. BlackRock's lightning sweep: With a ultra-low management fee of 0.25%, its ETHA products harvest $160 million in chips in a single day
3. Giant Whale secretly lays out: the number of addresses holding 10000 to 100000 ETH increases by 17% monthly, and smart money lurks ahead of schedule
4. The epic exchange of old and new capital has been completed in the blood mist of explosive positions, and the pricing power of Bitcoin has shifted from retail frenzy to institutional cold algorithms. This is not a frenzy for retail investors, but the beginning of institutional repricing.
Operation suggestion:
1. Long BTC 119000, first target 121000, second target 121850;
2. ETH 3750 long, first target 3800, second target 3850.
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Disclaimer: The above content only represents the author's personal opinion and is for communication and sharing purposes only. It does not represent the position or viewpoint of AiCoin and does not constitute any investment advice. Based on this investment, there may be external contacts, which have nothing to do with AiCoin, and the consequences shall be borne by oneself.