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The price of Bitcoin fluctuated at a high level in the range of $116000-119000, with a maximum fluctuation of only 4.54% in the past week, and the latest quote remained around $119000. This sideways trend seems calm, but beneath the surface, there is a surging undercurrent - Bitcoin's dominant position plummeted from 64% to 60% within a week, hitting a new low since March.
The movement of the giant whale becomes a key signal. On July 17th, over 61000 BTC flooded into the exchange, setting a record for the largest daily inflow in a year. Miners simultaneously sold, and the wallet balance decreased from 68000 BTC to 65000 BTC. These large-scale transfers often indicate profit taking, and after Bitcoin hit a historic high of $123000, the whales chose to settle for safety.
The Mystery of Bitcoin's Horizontal Market
1. Bitcoin entered a consolidation period after reaching a historic high of $123218, with prices continuing to fluctuate between $116000 and $119000. Behind this sideways trend is the struggle of multiple market forces.
2. On chain data shows that the stock of Bitcoin on the exchange has dropped to a historical low of 14.5%, while the number of whale addresses holding over 1000 BTC has increased to 2135. This indicates that long-term holders have stable confidence, but short-term speculative funds are withdrawing.
3. At the macro level, US inflation data has become a key variable affecting the market. In June, the CPI increased by 2.7% year-on-year, slightly higher than the expected 2.6%, and the core CPI increased by 2.9% year-on-year. These data have raised concerns in the market about the Federal Reserve delaying interest rate cuts, prompting some funds to withdraw from high-risk assets3.
4. The behavior of whales and miners further exacerbates market uncertainty. On July 15th, the number of Bitcoin flowing into the exchange surged to 81000, the highest since February of this year. The total amount of single transfers exceeding 100 BTC by the giant whale skyrocketed from 13000 BTC to 58000 BTC, while miners transferred 16000 BTC during the same period.
The full-scale outbreak of counterfeit currencies
1. When Bitcoin stagnates, funds begin to flow massively into altcoins. Ethereum surged 31.63% last week, reaching a peak of $3860; SOL rose 26.74%, breaking through the $200 mark; DOGE surged by 52.58%.
2. The market structure has undergone significant changes: the knockoff season index has soared from 32 to 56, setting a new high for the year. The market value of memecoin has risen by 8% in a single day, approaching 90 billion US dollars.
3. Ethereum has become the leader in this round of market trend, and its strong performance is mainly driven by multiple positive factors: ETH spot ETF inflows of $2.2 billion per week, and institutional funds continue to increase by 3; SharpLink, a blockchain company, has increased its holdings to 270000 ETH, surpassing the Ethereum Foundation to become the world's largest listed ETH holder; The US GENIUS Act has been passed, establishing a federal regulatory framework for stablecoin issuance and trading, bringing long-term benefits to the Ethereum ecosystem.
Charging 130000 or the end of the era
Historical data provides a warning: after Bitcoin broke through the market three times in the past, although altcoins experienced a 3-5 week outbreak period, Bitcoin's dominant position rebounded afterwards, and the gains of altcoins were often swallowed up. The current market situation may only be a "sprint" rather than a comprehensive carnival.
New encryption game in rotation
1. The more significant change comes from the pension market. One of the largest public pension funds in the United States, the Ohio Public Employee Retirement System, significantly increased its holdings of MicroStrategy stock in the second quarter. The Trump administration is pushing for an executive order to allow the allocation of cryptocurrency in US household retirement accounts such as 401k, involving a market size of up to $9 trillion.
2. The regulatory environment is also improving. The US House of Representatives has passed three key encryption bills at once, namely the GENIUS Act, CLARITY Act, and Anti CBDC Act, providing a clearer framework for industry development. These changes indicate that cryptocurrencies are moving from the periphery to the core of the financial system.
3. When Bitcoin gained momentum at the $120000 mark, altcoins collectively jumped into a technical bull market. Historical experience shows that such rotation windows typically last for 3-5 weeks. But what's different this time is that traditional banks are issuing coins, pension funds are entering the market, and regulatory measures are breaking through. The $9 trillion household pension fund may become a new fuel for the cryptocurrency market
Operation suggestion:
BTC 119300 long, first target 120500, second target 121500;
ETH 3680 long, first target at 3730, second target at 3780.
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Disclaimer: The above content only represents the author's personal opinion and is for communication and sharing purposes only. It does not represent the position or viewpoint of AiCoin and does not constitute any investment advice. Based on this investment, there may be external contacts, which have nothing to do with AiCoin, and the consequences shall be borne by oneself.
