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Detailed analysis of ETH's recent situation and future trends in the live broadcast room, implementing long-term order layout!
——Three major signals ignite market sprint expectations
1. "Attack and defense reversal" of key support positions
In the past 12 hours, ETH has completed three deep retracement tests at the $3800 level, and on chain data shows:
① Whale protection: Every time it falls to the range of 3780-3820, there are large single buy orders exceeding 500 ETH involved;
② Clearing barrier: $820 million short stop loss orders are concentrated below 3800, forming a natural defensive cushion.
Conclusion: 3800 has shifted from a pressure level to technical support, and the bearish trend is evident.
Is the 4500 target not just empty talk? The three major engines have been started
① Technical aspect: Acceleration of the ascending channel
The ETH daily chart has broken through the convergence triangle that has lasted for 2 months, and the MACD bar chart has turned red and increased volume for 5 consecutive days. If it stabilizes at 3850, the theoretical measurement target will directly point to 4480.
② Financial aspect: Whales ambush in advance
In the past week, CEX's ETH perpetual contract funding rate has remained neutral (0.01%) and there has been no overheating leverage.
On the other hand, in the spot market:
12 new addresses with holdings exceeding 10000 ETH have been added (with a total increase of 268000 ETH);
Coinbase saw a single $120 million off exchange buy (July 27th).
Hint: Smart funds are quietly laying out.
③ Emotional aspect: FOMO critical point will be reached
The current cryptocurrency Fear Greed Index has risen to 79 (extremely greedy), but the amount of ETH open contracts is still 15% lower than the previous high. There is' empty space anxiety 'in the market:
Retail investors have not yet entered the market in large numbers, which is actually a signal of healthy growth. "- Lucas Lee, Bybit analyst
3. Key risk: Two 'ghost gates' on the 4500 road
High pressure zone: $4050 (starting point of a sharp decline in March 2024, with a high concentration of trapped stocks);
High pressure zone: $2350 (historically high psychological resistance level).
Key to breaking the deadlock: The daily trading volume needs to exceed 28 billion US dollars (current peak of 18 billion US dollars).
Starry sea or castle in the air? 】
The narrative of ETH breakthrough is shifting from 'whether it can stand firm at 3800' to 'how to break through 4050'. If it closes above 3950 in the next week, 4500 will no longer be a slogan. But be cautious: as the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision approaches in August, the macro black swan remains the biggest variable. Will ETH become a new engine for bull markets when BTC accumulates strength in a sideways trend?
Operation suggestion:
BTC 118500 long, first target to see 119600, second target to see 120200;
ETH 3800 long, first target at 3860, second target at 3920.
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Disclaimer: The above content only represents the author's personal opinion and is for communication and sharing purposes only. It does not represent the position or viewpoint of AiCoin and does not constitute any investment advice. Based on this investment, there may be external contacts, which have nothing to do with AiCoin, and the consequences shall be borne by oneself.
