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On August 3rd, Bitcoin plummeted to $111850 during trading, triggering a $760 million sell-off across the entire network and resulting in 180000 traders being wiped out. Even more deadly, the spot Bitcoin ETF recorded a net outflow of $812 million on the same day, setting the second largest single day fund outflow record in history, with Fidelity FBTC monopolizing the $331 million selling pressure. Is this "cliff stop" style deep V reversal a bull's turn fake fall or a prelude to a bear market strangulation?
1. Fund Movement: Main Force Withdrawal Signal
1. ETF fund crash: After a cumulative decline of 6% from July 29th to August 3rd, the Bitcoin ETF lost $812 million in a single day, while the Ethereum ETF followed suit with $152 million, ending its 20 day continuous inflow trend. The intention of institutional profit taking is obvious, forming a cruel contrast with the belief of "buying more and more as the market falls" in May.
2. * * Derivatives market collapse * *: Binance's net order volume plummeted to -160 million US dollars * * (active selling overwhelmed buying), open contracts shrank by 4% in a single day, and leveraged long positions were centrally liquidated. The market sentiment has shifted from greed to moderate fear (fear greed index reported 55).
【 II. 114K: The lifeline of technology 】
At present, Bitcoin is firmly holding the $114000 mark, which is regarded as an "iron bottom support" by both long and short sides. However, technical indicators hide hidden dangers:
1. Oversold repair demand * *: RSI has fallen to * * 22.23 * *, entering an extremely oversold range, and the probability of short-term rebound has increased.
2. * * Break risk not eliminated * *: If 114K is confirmed to be lost, the next support is expected to be $110000-109000 * *, and may even trigger a 15% chain sell-off.
3. The mysterious form of "pulling back from the cliff": After a high-level contraction and sideways trading, there may be a sharp drop, and if the main force does not leave, there may be a false crash to wash up the market. But with the massive outflow of funds this time, the ability of the main force to control the market is questionable.
3. Fake Falls vs. Bear Markets: Three Key Points of the Game
1. Policy Black Swan: The impact of the new US tariff policy has not dissipated, and the SEC has cited the "431 Rule" to delay the approval of cryptocurrency ETFs, triggering a market trust crisis due to regulatory games.
2. * * Opportunity for leverage clearance * *: After the liquidation of 760 million positions, the market leverage ratio plummeted, creating conditions for a rebound with light equipment. History shows that extreme liquidation is often accompanied by a technical rebound.
3. * * Risk dragged down by altcoins * *: If Bitcoin falls below 114K, mainstream altcoins such as Solana may fall below key support (such as SOL falling below $170), triggering a liquidity stampede.
4. Epilogue: Decision at the Cliff Edge
The current market is at the critical point between the "golden pit" and the "bear market trap":
1. * * Crash theorists * * are closely monitoring the support zone of $112000-113800 * *, believing that an oversold rebound will take advantage of the positive news from ETFs (September SEC decision) to counterattack 120K.
2. * * Bear Market Faction * * Warning: If 114K confirms a break, the * * $102335 * * target level will open, and funds may flee or evolve from a "false fall" to a "high platform dive".
3. * Risk Control Implications * *: Retail investors should divide their positions for defense. They can play light positions above 114K to rebound, and break below $110000 to avoid losses. The market volatility has risen to its peak within the year, and under the double-edged sword of policy and leverage, survival is more urgent than profit!
Operation suggestion:
- Long BTC 113500. First target: 114400. Second target: 115500;
ETH 3460 long, first target 3505, second target 3570.
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Disclaimer: The above content only represents the author's personal opinion and is for communication and sharing purposes only. It does not represent the position or viewpoint of AiCoin and does not constitute any investment advice. Based on this investment, there may be external contacts, which have nothing to do with AiCoin, and the consequences shall be borne by oneself.
