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Data Storm: Emergency Withdrawal of $3.1 Billion Pledged Warehouse
On August 14th, the withdrawal queue of Ethereum validators surged to 671900 ETH (approximately $3.1 billion), reaching a historical peak and far exceeding the demand for new staking. It is expected to take 12 days to complete the processing. The three major platforms have become the main force for withdrawal: Lido (285000 ETH), EtherFi (134000 ETH), and Coinbase (113000 ETH), among which Lido's stETH withdrawal queue is particularly under pressure. At the same time, the ETH price plummeted 4.13% during the day, briefly breaking through the key support level of $4500. Although it rebounded to $4537, market panic has spread.
Reasons for withdrawal trend: leverage clearing, arbitrage, and regulatory game
The collapse of leverage pledge cycle
In July, Sun Yuchen withdrew $600 million worth of ETH from Aave, causing a surge in lending rates and rendering the circular staking strategy (such as pledging stETH to borrow ETH and then staking again) ineffective. Despite the interest rate falling to 2.65%, investors still choose to withdraw from safe haven.
Arbitrage driven
StETH was once decoupled from ETH by 0.3%, attracting arbitrageurs to unwind staking for arbitrage. Currently, 278000 wstETH are marked as "high-risk" (health coefficient 1-1.1), and once decoupling intensifies, it may trigger DeFi chain liquidation.
Institutional shift towards ETF layout
BlackRock applied for an ETH pledged ETF in July, and institutional funds may shift from decentralized platforms such as Lido to compliant custodians such as Coinbase in response to SEC regulatory regulations.
Chain risk: $4500 lost and detonated 2.94 billion clearing bomb
Key clearing threshold: If ETH falls below $4430, the clearing scale of long positions across the entire network will reach $2.94 billion; If it further falls to $4072 and the liquidation amount surges to $2.3 billion, it could trigger a 'death spiral'.
Technical warning: The TD series indicator has issued a daily sell signal. If it falls below the support of $4150, the target level is below $3980-3860.
Market sentiment differentiation: Despite the ETF earning $1 billion in a single day, it is still difficult to offset the withdrawal and selling pressure of staking, and the derivatives market has exploded by $549 million within an hour (ETH accounts for $180 million).
Resilience still exists: ETF funds and ecological buffer zone
Incremental fund hedging: Galaxy Digital report points out that ETH treasury returns and ETF fund inflows are digesting selling pressure, and the market may return to normal after the exit queue is cleared.
Potential for bearish counterattack: If ETH breaks through $4891, it will trigger a bearish liquidation of $1.248 billion, forming an upward catalyst.
The evolution of the staking ecosystem: The competition between decentralized platforms (such as Lido) and institutional custodians (such as Coinbase) will reshape the staking market landscape, causing short-term pain or promoting long-term compliance.
Conclusion: Is it a precursor to a collapse or a bull's turn
The escape of the $3.1 billion pledged warehouse and the loss of the $4500 defense line exposed the fragility of the highly leveraged market, but it is not a signal of collapse. Short term risks are concentrated in the derivative clearing wave (key level $4430/4072) and transmitted through the decoupling of stETH; Long term support comes from ETF institutional funds, Layer 1 gas essential needs, and pledge compliance process 894. The market is experiencing the pain of deleveraging, and if the weekly support of $4386 is maintained, ETH is still expected to return to the $5000 high - this long short battle has just begun tonight
Operation suggestion:
- BTC 118000 long, first target watch 119050, second target watch 120035;
ETH 4510 long, first target is 4580, second target is 4645.
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Disclaimer: The above content only represents the author's personal opinion and is for communication and sharing purposes only. It does not represent the position or viewpoint of AiCoin and does not constitute any investment advice. Based on this investment, there may be external contacts, which have nothing to do with AiCoin, and the consequences shall be borne by oneself.
