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After the early morning closing of the US stock market, Nvidia's financial report fell short of expectations, and the cryptocurrency market was also affected, leading to a collective decline. Last night in the live broadcast room, it was said not to hang up orders, as there is a high probability of withdrawal. ETH quietly buried a huge amount of 23000 ETH in the range of 4586-4587 (currently priced at nearly $100 million). This is not a small fuss, obviously the main force is holding back big moves, combined with on chain data and technical aspects, ETH is likely to have a big move tonight!
1. Three 'solid hammers' on the news side, not blindly shouting for price increases, funds have already taken action
Whales swallow 200000 ETH in 72 hours, fully locked cold wallet
On chain data does not deceive: In the past three days, five anonymous wallets have each purchased 40000 ETH, of which three are new addresses, clearly indicating the institution's "vest number". More importantly, these ETH were not transferred to the exchange and all mentioned cold wallet lock up at current prices of 880 million US dollars. Institutions spending so much money hoarding goods are not just running to make 3% profit, they are definitely waiting for a wave of growth.
2. BlackRock+Goldman Sachs double buff, with a mountain of positive news piled up
The liquidation process of BlackRock's ETH ETF just finished last night, which is equivalent to obtaining the "entry permit". We are waiting for the opportunity to increase our position; Goldman Sachs will launch ETH structured wealth management next week, and private clients have already booked $500 million. Once these institutional funds enter the market, they can at least push ETH to 4800. You should know that institutions always "quietly build positions", and by the time retail investors see the news, they have already laid out their plans
3. The "coin shortage" on the exchange intensifies, and the more ETH is snatched up, the less it gets
The ETH balance of Binance and Coinbase decreased by 120000 coins this week, which is the largest weekly decline this year. Retail investors are competing with institutions, and there are fewer and fewer circulating stocks on the exchange - just like concert tickets, the fewer there are left, the more popular they are. Once funds enter the market to grab goods, prices can easily be pushed up,
Secondly, the technical aspect is full of "surge signals": all three major indicators are shouting "rush"
1. The Bollinger Bands open at a 45 degree angle, with the middle track forming a 'rebound spring'
The Bollinger Bands in the 4-hour chart are too conspicuous: the upper and lower tracks seem to be forcefully pulled apart, with an opening angle of over 45 degrees. This pattern appeared when ETH surged towards $3000, and then rose directly by $600 in the following three days. More importantly, it is the middle track. It follows from 4300 to 4500, and every time the price rebounds to the middle track, it bounces up without giving any opportunity for a deep decline. This is a typical form of "strong upward middle track support".
2. MACD Water Gold Intent, Red Pillar Quickly Piercing Screen
The MACD of the 1-hour line has long been above the 0 axis, and the length of the red bar is longer than the previous two rises. The DIFF and DEA lines are twisting upwards. By flipping through historical data, it can be seen that when ETH shows a combination of "water golden cross+red bar amplification", 7 out of 10 times it will rise by more than 5%. Now, with this momentum, the upward trend may be even stronger than before.
3. Reduced volume callback 4570? This is the main force washing the market
When 4643 fell back to 4570, the trading volume was 40% less than when it rose. This is not a decline, it is clearly due to the main force being "smart". Just like a slingshot that needs to be pulled back to shoot far, the main force intentionally hits it in order to shake out the scattered investors who panic when they drop. When the chips are washed clean before pulling, the resistance will be much smaller.
3. Risks to be aware of: 4570 is the life and death line, and breaking it may lead to 4500
Although bullish, there is a thunderbolt that must be mentioned: if ETH falls below 4570 and cannot be recovered after the US stock market opens tonight, it may trigger a robot sell-off. According to backend data, there are nearly 50000 ETH stop loss orders (about 220 million US dollars) stacked in the range of 4570-4550. Once they are breached, they may chain down to 4500. However, there is no need to panic: the perpetual contract is still paying interest on long orders, indicating that long positions have sufficient confidence; The stock on the exchange is low and there are not enough chips to smash the market. The probability of panic selling is less than 30%, with a high probability of "scaring retail investors"
Operation suggestion:
- Long BTC 111400, first target 113000, second target 113800;
- ETH 4500 long, first target at 4560, second target at 4680.
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Disclaimer: The above content only represents the author's personal opinion and is for communication and sharing purposes only. It does not represent the position or viewpoint of AiCoin and does not constitute any investment advice. Based on this investment, there may be external contacts, which have nothing to do with AiCoin, and the consequences shall be borne by oneself.
