QCP： Bitcoin is not favored as a safe haven, and participants still lean towards defense until a clearer situation emerges

According to BlockBeats, on April 16th, QCP released a daily market observation stating that the United States has demonstrated its strength and strategic edge policies, implementing deterrence tactics through exaggerated tariff figures. However, just as the market was preparing to face the impact, the US government offered tariff exemptions and "invited" China to return to the negotiating table. Why did it suddenly change? The bond market is starting to issue warning signals. The yield of 10-year US treasury bond soared to 4.6%, and the yield of 30-year US treasury bond exceeded 5%, disturbing risk sentiment. If Trump wants to drive a stock market rebound during his term, long-term returns must decline, not rise. The sell-off in the bond market has intensified pressure on the Federal Reserve's intervention. It seems that we are approaching a turning point now. Last week, the Federal Reserve stated that it is prepared to take action to stabilize financial conditions. Director Waller further emphasized this shift, implying that the Federal Reserve's attention is shifting towards recession risks, implicitly downplaying the persistent inflation issue, which they now describe as "temporary". The Federal Reserve has previously applied the "temporary" label to various inflation cycles, but these cycles are far from temporary. Nevertheless, the Federal Reserve's protective mechanism is gradually approaching, and the market now expects 3.5 interest rate cuts by 2025. Meanwhile, as geopolitical tensions intensify, gold continues to rise. As US treasury bond bonds and the US dollar lose some of their traditional risk aversion appeal, gold has become the preferred value storage tool in the market. Bitcoin is different from gold in that it has not gained safe haven demand. The narrative of 'alternative value storage' has not gained appeal in the current macro environment. The position of market participants still leans towards defense. They are still focused on hedging downside risks until a clearer situation emerges.