Fuxi Community Live: Can 3.3 trillion yuan bring cryptocurrency into a repricing stage?

Click on the link to enter Tencent Meeting: https://meeting.tencent.com/p/9309732027 At the beginning of the second half of 2025, the financial market will face a complex and intertwined policy shift and asset revaluation. The Federal Reserve continues to maintain a wait-and-see attitude with data as the anchor, while the $3.3 trillion tax reform spending bill pushed by the Trump administration is rapidly changing the market's expected structure. The US dollar index hit a three-year low, triggering a chain reaction in the global foreign exchange market; At the same time, funds began to withdraw from overvalued technology stocks and flow back to traditional industry sectors dominated by the Dow Jones index. Cryptocurrencies have also risen strongly due to the decline in real interest rates and increased political risks. 1、 Macro Overview The US dollar index rebounded after hitting its lowest level of 96.38 since February 2022 in early trading, temporarily stopping its nine consecutive declines. In the first half of 2025, the US dollar recorded its worst performance since the establishment of the floating exchange rate system in 1973, with a cumulative decline of over 10%. The current market sentiment remains cautious, focusing on the widening US fiscal deficit, tariff risks, and the issue of the Federal Reserve's policy independence. 2、 Key points of the Big Beautiful Bill: Budget total: 3.3 trillion US dollars 1. Structural composition: $4.5 trillion in tax cuts (including permanent tax cuts and tax-free tipping policies), $1.2 trillion in spending cuts (mainly targeting medical subsidies and food stamps), $350 billion in border security spending cuts, green energy tax incentives. Senate vote passed: with a decisive vote from Vice President J.D. Vance. Currently in the House of Representatives review stage, the goal is to pass it before the deadline set by Trump on July 4th 2. Market reaction: The bill has raised concerns about fiscal sustainability and intensified selling pressure on the US dollar. But the short-term rebound was boosted by SM Manufacturing PMI (49.0) and JOLTS job vacancies (7.769 million) data. Trump's public pressure on the Federal Reserve to "cut interest rates to 1% or even lower" has raised concerns in the market about the erosion of central bank independence. 3、 Technical analysis The US dollar remains weak, and BTC's short-term rebound lacks momentum Technical form: The wide range oscillation trend formed since June continues, Technical indicator: MACD: Continue to blunt and weaken, strengthen upward resistance, Trend key range: 108000-105000 4、 The core variable of this round of market volatility is attributed to the repricing of fiscal and monetary policy directions: if the Trump bill is successfully implemented, it will be positive for the stock market in the short term, but it will also further weaken confidence in the US dollar in the medium to long term; At the same time, although the Federal Reserve is not loosening its grip for the time being, market bets on a September rate cut are accumulating, and marginal adjustments in asset prices are quietly unfolding. The US dollar may experience a short-term technical oversold rebound, but the trend remains weak; Mainstream currencies have medium-term allocation value, especially in the context of real interest rates tending towards negative values; Looking ahead to the next week, the US non farm payroll data (July 4th) will become a key catalyst, and whether the bill can be passed in the House of Representatives as scheduled will also determine the subsequent momentum of the US dollar. Investors should closely monitor macro policy trends, marginal changes in market sentiment, and maintain flexibility and patience in their operations. Tencent Meeting Number: 9309732027 QQ group: 123116768 Disclaimer: The above content only represents the author's personal opinion and is for communication and sharing purposes only. It does not represent the position or viewpoint of AiCoin and does not constitute any investment advice. Based on this investment, there may be external contacts, which have nothing to do with AiCoin, and the consequences shall be borne by oneself.