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Click on the link to enter Tencent Meeting: https://meeting.tencent.com/p/9850662513 On the early morning of August 3rd, the price of Ethereum broke through the key support of $3400 and hit a low of $3366, plummeting 5.04% in 24 hours. A long short strangulation battle is unfolding, with giant whales sweeping goods in the dark night and individual investors shedding blood and tears. Institutional bottom fishing: billions of capital swallowed chips against the trend 1. ETF institutions' greedy fundraising The US spot Ethereum ETF has had a net inflow for 20 consecutive days, with a cumulative cash inflow of $5.4 billion in July. BlackRock increased its holdings by 27000 ETH (approximately $100 million) in a single day, with a total holding size exceeding $10 billion, becoming the "anchor" in the sharp decline. 2. The giant whale is crazily sweeping goods outside the venue The mysterious institution "ETH Micro Strategy SBET" spent $108 million twice within 24 hours to purchase ETH through the Galaxy Digital over-the-counter platform; During the same period, two new whale addresses bought 68297 ETH (approximately $252 million) in a single day, resulting in a significant increase in net outflow from the exchange. Retail investors cutting meat: 179 million explosive warehouse receipts staining the market red 1. * * Leveraged Long Blood 8 Hours * *: ETH plummeted from $3600 to $3494, triggering a multi order liquidation of $179 million across the entire network, with retail investors holding over 96% of high leverage positions. 2. * * Panic selling intensifies * *: On chain data shows that CEX has had a net outflow of 641600 ETH in the past 7 days, with Coinbase Pro and Binance being the main withdrawal platforms, and the proportion of individual coin holdings dropping to a new low for the year. Long Short Duel: Deadly Resonance between Technical and Macro Perspectives 1. Key support lost The ETH price has broken through the upward channel and hit the lower limit of $3625. The 4-hour Supertrend indicator has turned bearish, and the lower limit of the Bollinger Bands points to $3160. If it cannot recover from the $3525 cut-off line within the day, it may slide into the abyss of $3307. 2. Macro negative chain impact -The hawkish stance of the Federal Reserve has suppressed the probability of a September interest rate cut from 60% to 43%, and the US dollar index is forcing * * 98.7 * * to suppress risky assets; -Trump's new tariff policy came into effect at midnight (39% in Switzerland and 50% in Brazil), triggering indiscriminate selling in global markets. Behind the Line of Life and Death: Who controls the fate of ETH? 】 The sharp decline is not the end, but a bloody ritual of capital redistribution! ” 1. Institutional logic: BlackRock and others used ETF channels to attract funds at low prices, betting on the bottoming out and rebound of ETH/BTC exchange rates, as well as the outbreak of the L2 ecosystem (with gas fees falling below $1). 2. * * Retail investor dilemma * *: Over 640000 ETH * * (approximately $2.34 billion) pledged and unlocked in the queue, coupled with a wave of leverage liquidation, short-term selling pressure is like a hanging sword. Future outlook: A golden pit or a mass market 1. * * Long defense line * *: The historical strong support zone is $3400. If the volume rebounds above $3600, it may trigger short covering. 2. * * Risk Warning * *: If it falls below $3300, it may trigger a chain sell-off to reach $3100, but the medium - to long-term institutional holding cost line (3200-3300) may become a bottom anchor point. *Operation signal * *: When the giant whale searched for the bottom in the dark night, the bones of individual investors were still fresh - this $3400 life and death battle was destined to be a dual test of capital and faith. Operation suggestion: BTC 112200 long, first target watch 113200, second target watch 114200; ETH 3360 long, first target is 3420, second target is 3495. Join the language community communication group to obtain more services 1. Real time troubleshooting (online one-on-one question answering and sorting) 2. Professional technical analysis and theoretical learning 3. Construction and improvement of trading system- 4. Live streaming courses every day, contract termination, real-time order making, to help you successfully land! Every day, there are teachers in the group who provide precise positioning to answer questions and offer free guidance. Tencent Meeting Live: 985-066-2513 DingTalk Group Number: 120320009032 Every day, there are teachers in the group who arrange precise positioning to answer questions and provide free guidance Disclaimer: The above content only represents the author's personal opinion and is for communication and sharing purposes only. It does not represent AICoin's position or viewpoint and does not constitute any investment advice. Based on this investment, there may be external contacts, which have nothing to do with AICoin, and the consequences shall be borne by oneself.
