Click on the link to enter Tencent Meeting: https://meeting.tencent.com/p/9850662513 As of early September 2025, ETH prices have fluctuated around $4300, with multiple tests of the $4222 support level but failing to effectively break through the $4500 resistance level. This key point has sparked widespread market divergence. On the one hand, long-term holders (LTH) are engaging in large-scale profit taking. The LTH NUPL indicator has reached a historical level of 0.65, and whenever this indicator exceeds this value, the ETH price often stagnates or rebounds. The Coin Days Destroyed (CDD) indicator has also reached its highest peak in two months over the past 24 hours, indicating that long-term holders are actively liquidating their positions. 01 Short Perspective: Obvious downward signal Analysts predict that Ethereum may hit the support zone of around $3000-3350 in September. Technical charts may form a typical head and shoulder shape in September to 'shock market sentiment'. The Ethereum ETF listed in the United States has experienced net outflows for four consecutive days, totaling $505 million. This has intensified the selling pressure in the market, and the sentiment in the derivatives market has also become cautious. The monthly futures premium of ETH has dropped to a two month low, falling below the neutral threshold of 5%. This indicates a decrease in bullish interest in leverage, and traders are not very optimistic about the outlook. 02 bullish perspective: fundamentals remain strong Despite the weak price trend, Ethereum's on chain activity still shows resilience. In the past month, the number of transactions on the Ethereum network has surged by 32%, and active addresses have increased by 7%. In contrast, Solana's user base has shrunk by 20%, and BNB Chain has shrunk significantly by 42%. The total locked value (TVL) of Ethereum has climbed to $97.4 billion, an increase of 12% within 30 days. Ethereum's dominant position in all TVLs remains as high as 60%, and if the Layer-2 ecosystem is included, it reaches 67%. The transaction volume of the Base network is only 25% less than that of BNB Chain. 03 Institutional viewpoint: Obvious divergence Henrik Andersson, Chief Investment Officer of Apollo Capital, holds a reserved attitude towards the technology landscape and the weak trend commonly seen in September throughout history. He believes that a more secure approach is to focus on fundamental analysis rather than relying on historical patterns that often fail. OKX Singapore CEO Gracie Lin said, "Macro events such as US employment data and the upcoming interest rate decision by the Federal Reserve may trigger short-term fluctuations, but the real driving force comes from structural changes. Yi Lihua, a top investor in the cryptocurrency industry and founder of Lotus Capital, emphasized that "the long-term trend of ETH remains unchanged, and the best buying point is a short-term pullback to the $4100-4300 range. 04 Future outlook: Key positions determine direction The future trend of ETH price is likely to depend on whether it can hold the current support level and break through key resistance levels. If the support level of $4222 is effectively breached, it may explore the $4060-4080 range. If we can successfully break through and hold onto the resistance level of $4500, it may open the way to $4749 or even a new high. Institutional investors such as micro strategy have recently increased their holdings of ETH, and fundamental factors such as the approval of ETH spot ETF RMB trading in Hong Kong may provide long-term support for the price. Trader Daan Crypto Trades pointed out that if the price retests the 200 cycle moving average on the 4-hour chart (around $4160), it will be a key point worth paying attention to. The market is in a wait-and-see state, waiting for the next catalyst. Macro events such as non farm payroll data and Federal Reserve interest rate decisions may trigger short-term fluctuations, but the real long-term driving force still comes from Ethereum's fundamental advantages Operation suggestion: BTC 110000 long first target to see 111560 second target to see 112850 ETH 4250 long first target to see 4300 second target to see 4365 Join the language community communication group to obtain more services 1. Real time troubleshooting (online one-on-one question answering and sorting) 2. Professional technical analysis and theoretical learning 3. Construction and improvement of trading system- 4. Live streaming courses every day, contract termination, real-time order making, to help you successfully land! Every day, there are teachers in the group who provide precise positioning to answer questions and offer free guidance. Tencent Meeting Live: 985-066-2513 DingTalk Group Number: 120320009032 Disclaimer: The above content only represents the author's personal opinion and is intended to assist investors in understanding information related to the capital market. It does not constitute any investment advice and does not represent the position or viewpoint of AiCoin. The market is risky and investments should be made with caution.
