[Probability of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in December is 42.9%] CME 'FedWatch' data shows that the probability of the Federal Reserve cutting rates by 25 basis points in December is 42.9%, while the probability of maintaining rates unchanged is 57.1%. By January next year, the probability of the Federal Reserve cumulatively cutting rates by 25 basis points is 48.2%, maintaining rates unchanged is 35.6%, and cumulatively cutting rates by 50 basis points is 16.1%.