8.18 Some dangerous signals 1. More and more KOLs are joining the $BTC bear market bottoming camp. This is a dangerous signal. Bear market bottoms have always been marked by huge disagreements, but now it’s almost one-sided optimism about the bottom. 2. The S&P is still near historical highs. There’s never been a bear market bottom where the stock index was still at such high levels. If the stock index enters a bear market, $BTC still has room to fall. The second half of the bear market hasn’t even started yet. 3. Both 2018 and 2022 saw consolidation from June to October, with the last wave of sharp declines happening around the midterm elections in November.