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Last month, I confirmed that the 5.8 range was the bottom of this cycle. There was a signal at the time that many people might have overlooked: Strategy. Looking at this from the perspective of an operator makes it quite interesting. By the time the bear market reached that stage, what Strategy truly needed to consider was no longer just whether BTC would rise, but rather: Where is the bottom, really? How far is the company from its survival line? If there’s another extreme drop, can the capital structure withstand it? Since there was still some distance from the true survival line, proactively exposing risks early is always better than waiting until the last day to be forced into a solution by the market. So when Strategy broke the expectation of “only buying, not selling” and started adjusting BTC and USD reserves, optimizing its capital structure, I immediately saw it as a very important signal. I’m not saying Saylor publicly stated, “I want to test BTC’s bottom.” He didn’t. This was my deduction from the perspective of a decision-maker. But the market eventually gave its answer. The expectation of “only buying, not selling” was broken, BTC dropped to 58K; then, with the added blow of negative news like hardware wallet security concerns that were enough to shake market confidence, 60K still managed to hold in the end. This was a stress test. And this was the basis for my judgment at the time that 5.8 was the bottom—it wasn’t some post-hoc reasoning after the price rebounded. So now, I’m actually more concerned about another matter: If Strategy starts buying again continuously, could that be the bulls’ signal to “raise the flag”? Of course, it’s not just about hitting the buy button. But I would definitely treat it as a high-weight signal. Someone who has truly gone through a stress test, knows the bottom line of their capital structure, and is willing to put real money back into the game—this person’s actions are at least more worth studying than the majority of opinions floating around the market. You don’t have to agree with Saylor. But if you think you’re definitely smarter than someone who deals with capital markets, financing structures, and billion-dollar positions every day, then you’d better first figure out where your confidence is coming from. The market doesn’t reward stubbornness. In the end, it only recognizes real money.

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