Sometimes, you really have to trust the trendline! This weekly 'super sky pillar' has broken out of the downward channel that suppressed it for more than half a year. If $57,800 was truly the bottom this cycle, then my previous judgment on the cycle was indeed a bit slow. The bottom came faster, and the market started earlier than the traditional cycle. The biggest change is still the ETFs. In the past, when looking at $BTC, the focus was mainly on halving events, on-chain metrics, and retail sentiment. Now, institutional funds have become a stable marginal buyer, which might compress bear market durations and raise cycle bottoms. The old indicators haven’t completely failed, but relying solely on the four-year cycle and extreme signals can no longer explain the current market. ETF inflows, U.S. Treasury yields, the dollar, and policy expectations are all gaining weight. To be honest, if this cycle has already bottomed, I definitely missed the most comfortable part of the ride. I’ve been waiting for the 'final dip,' but the market kept squeezing shorts and took off directly. Missing out is, of course, frustrating, but chasing after this regret around $80,000 due to FOMO would be even riskier. The weekly breakout indicates that the structure has turned bullish, but it doesn’t mean $BTC will keep going up indefinitely. Historically, in similar cases where there’s been a 'long consolidation followed by a single-week surge of over 20%,' the mid-term continuation rate is relatively high, but the median maximum pullback afterward is about 14.5%. Based on this cycle’s high, the normal pullback zone is roughly between $68,000 and $72,000. Here’s my simple plan: - If $72,000–$74,000 pulls back to the trendline, I’ll take small positions to test the waters. - If $68,000–$70,000 sees continued ETF inflows and the weekly chart shows signs of stabilization, I’ll add positions in batches. - If the weekly candle closes below $65,000, I’ll treat it as a false breakout and stop bottom-fishing. - If the market doesn’t give a pullback and directly stabilizes above $82,000, I won’t chase with large positions. I’ll wait for $80,000–$82,000 to turn from resistance into support before considering following the trend. Missing the lowest point doesn’t mean there won’t be opportunities throughout the entire cycle. This time, I’d rather earn a bit less than let the frustration of missing out make me abandon my discipline during the peak of market hype. #Crypto #BTC #TradingPlan #HODL