After a big weekly green candle, bitcoin:native is now facing its real test! My view is clear: this rally isn’t just a regular rebound, but to confirm a major trend reversal, it needs to pass two hurdles—hold the pullback and break through $85,000. This week, BTC surged to a high of $81,500 before pulling back significantly, leaving a long upper shadow on the weekly chart. At the very least, this shows one thing: there’s no shortage of sell pressure above $80,000. That said, the mid-term structure has indeed strengthened. The price is now above the MA30, MA200, and the short-term EMA ribbon. The weekly MACD has formed a golden cross below the zero line, and the momentum bars continue to expand. The short-term issue is overheating. The KDJ’s J value is near 99, and RSI6 has risen to 74.7. At these levels, pushing higher directly has less favorable odds. A period of consolidation or a pullback would actually be better for digesting profit-taking and trapped positions. The long upper shadow might just be a result of rapid gains meeting macroeconomic pressures all at once. There’s already a divergence in the capital flow. In mid-to-late August, ETFs saw significant net inflows, providing spot buying power for the breakout. But on August 28, it flipped back to net outflows, indicating that institutions aren’t chasing prices consistently. At the same time, the Nasdaq has pulled back, the 2-year U.S. Treasury yield has risen to 4.348%, the dollar is rebounding, and the market is once again pricing in the risk of a rate hike in September. Here are the three scenarios I see next: 1. Holding $73,500–$75,000 would indicate strong consolidation. After digesting the overbought conditions, it could test $84,000–$85,000 again. 2. A pullback to $70,000–$72,000 followed by stabilization would be a normal breakout confirmation and a more comfortable mid-term observation zone. 3. If the weekly chart breaks below $70,000, the structure will weaken significantly. The next support would be $65,000–$68,000, and if $64,000 is breached, the reversal thesis for this cycle would essentially fail. BTC can only aim for $88,000–$92,000 if it breaks above $85,000 with strong volume, ETF inflows resume, U.S. equities stabilize, and rate hike expectations cool down. No rush to chase the pump right now. Let’s first see if there’s any buying support above $70,000 during the first weekly pullback.